January China MIBK Market Shows a Phased Recovery

January 28th News

In January 2026, the MIBK market in China experienced a phased recovery, ending the previous downward trend, with prices showing a steady upward trend. Monitoring data shows that at the beginning of the month, the main negotiation price in the East China region was about 6916 CNY/ton. As market favorable factors gradually emerged, by the end of January, the price had smoothly climbed to the range of 7200-7400 CNY/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 5.06% within the month. The market trading sentiment significantly improved compared to the depressed state in the fourth quarter of last year. This recovery is the result of multiple factors resonating, including strong support from the cost side, orderly regulation on the supply side, rigid demand support on the demand side, and the restoration of market sentiment, collectively forming the phased upward trend for this month.

Strong cost-side momentum provides core support. The sustained upward trend in the price of acetone—a key raw material—provides robust support. As acetone is the core feedstock for MIBK production, the two are highly correlated, and fluctuations in acetone prices have a significant pass-through effect on MIBK costs. Since January, the acetone market in East China has entered an upward trajectory, with prices rising from 4,057 CNY/ton on January 1 to 4,800 CNY/ton on January 26, representing a price increase of 18.3%. Although prices have slightly declined over the past two days, they remain at relatively high levels, offering solid cost support for MIBK.

Supply-side moderate regulation eases excess pressure. In terms of supply, the industry has alleviated the persistent oversupply issue through plant load adjustments and control of order delivery schedules. Market monitoring in January showed that the operating rate of MIBK enterprises in China was below 50%, with some factories proactively reducing their loads and prioritizing the fulfillment of previous orders, resulting in no significant shipping pressure. Overall inventory levels remained moderate. Price adjustments by leading companies further fueled market sentiment. On January 28, Anhui Zhonghui Fa New Materials, with its 50,000 tons/year MIBK facility running normally, raised its price by 200 CNY/ton to 7,600 CNY/ton due to manageable inventory and steady demand, becoming a key indicator of market price increases. Additionally, although MIBK capacity reached 280,000 tons in 2025, leading to a high supply base, there was no new capacity release this month. Companies' proactive control of shipping schedules has kept the spot market tight, providing support for price increases.

Rigid demand provides a bottom-line support, and market sentiment has improved. Although downstream demand has not seen explosive growth, the steady follow-up trend has provided a basic level of support to the market. MIBK is mainly used in rubber antioxidants, coatings, and other fields, with the demand for antioxidants closely related to the automotive and tire industries. In 2024, China's automobile production and sales increased by 2.9% and 3.7% year-on-year, respectively, driving a steady increase in the demand for antioxidants, and thus forming a rigid demand procurement for MIBK. From the perspective of market transactions, downstream companies mostly adopt a strategy of following demand, with actual transactions mainly consisting of small orders. Overall, the market is in a "lukewarm" state, but there has been no resistance to purchasing, effectively supporting the price-holding actions of upstream suppliers.

In the short term, driven by both cost support and tight supply, the MIBK market is expected to continue its high-level volatile trend. If the price of acetone—the raw material—remains firm, it will continue to provide a cost floor for MIBK. Meanwhile, with limited inventory pressure on companies and a strong willingness to maintain prices, the mainstream price in the East China region is forecast to remain within the range of 7,200 to 7,400 CNY per ton.

In the long term, the market still faces pressure from the supply and demand game. In 2026, it is expected that new MIBK facilities will be commissioned in China, which may lead to a resurgence in supply pressure. Meanwhile, there is no clear expectation of improvement in downstream demand, which will continue to be dominated by rigid demand procurement. Additionally, the price trend of raw material acetone remains uncertain. If the subsequent increase in acetone supply leads to a price drop, the cost support for MIBK will weaken. Overall, the MIBK market in 2026 is likely to show a "first rise then fall" trend. The price increase in January is probably a temporary phenomenon, and subsequent attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of acetone, the release of new production capacity, and the progress of downstream demand recovery.