Supply and Demand Pressures Combine, PVC Prices Surge and Then Retreat This Week

December 05 news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, this week (Dec 1-5), the PVC spot market in China saw a decline from its high position, with prices fluctuating downward. By Friday, the average price of SG-5 type PVC produced by the calcium carbide method in China was 4,400 CNY/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week.

II. Market Analysis

This week, PVC did not continue the previous upward trend, and prices continued to decline within the week. Most manufacturers' quotes remained stable during the week, with some mainly reducing their prices by less than 100 yuan. The supply and demand fundamentals were weak, with significant supply pressure. Although the production rate of manufacturers did not increase, social inventory was still on the rise. In terms of demand, there was weak demand externally, and export pressure increased due to the external environment. The Chinese market mainly maintained stable essential demand. Overall, there was weak demand. As of now, the price range for SG5 type calcium carbide material in China is mostly around 4,450-4,480 CNY/ton.

On the upstream calcium carbide front, the calcium carbide market rebounded this week. According to the commodity analysis system, the price increase for the week was 3.8%. On the one hand, the rise in calcium carbide prices spurred a rebound in downstream PVC prices at the beginning of the week; however, from mid-week through the weekend, affected by supply-and-demand pressures, prices failed to sustain their upward trend.

III. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the spot PVC market is expected to remain sluggish in the short term. Looking ahead to next week, supply-side pressures may ease somewhat, as facilities such as Jinlu and Yibin Tianyuan are scheduled for maintenance. However, given the persistently high levels of social inventories, it’s unlikely that supply will see significant changes in the near future. On the demand side, external purchasing activity remains subdued, and overall demand is moderate, with the market driven primarily by essential, immediate needs. Overall, PVC prices are likely to halt their decline next week and enter a period of fluctuation; a genuine rebound, however, is unlikely to materialize.