In April, China's acetone market first declined then rose

April 29th, news:

In April, the Chinese acetone market as a whole showed a clear "first decline then rise" trend. The price movement could be divided into three stages: a high-level drop, continuous downward exploration, and a rebound from the bottom. The core driving logic shifted from the earlier dual suppression of weakening costs and weak demand to a coordinated effort of supply contraction, cost recovery, and demand improvement. Market sentiment also gradually shifted from cautious observation before the holiday to stabilization and improvement.

Downturn phase (early to mid-period): Pressured by triple negative factors, prices continue to decline.

—Loosening of cost support: The rebound in international crude oil prices has led to a sharp decline in the price of upstream pure benzene. As the core raw material for acetone production, the drop in pure benzene prices has directly weakened the cost support for phenol-ketone production. Consequently, producers lack the ability to hold prices steady, making this the primary driver behind the downward price trend. Meanwhile, the operating rate in the phenol-ketone industry remains high, ensuring relatively ample supply and further intensifying cost pressures.

• Demand remains weak: The overall operation of downstream industries is insufficient, with the main downstream industries, MMA and bisphenol A, experiencing low demand. The transmission of terminal market demand is not smooth. The MMA industry has been affected by the weak demand from the terminal coatings and plastics industries, leading to a decline in operating rates and reduced procurement volumes. Although the bisphenol A industry maintains a certain level of operation, the terminal real estate and home appliance industries are slow to recover, resulting in high finished goods inventory for companies and a lack of strong willingness to purchase acetone. The market is characterized by "high prices but no transactions," and the demand side cannot provide effective support.

• Market sentiment is cautious: Before the May Day Labor holiday, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude among industry players. Traders, to avoid the risk of price drops after the holiday, are mainly focused on selling, with significant room for negotiation on actual orders, leading to a generally weak market. Downstream enterprises are adopting a "buy as needed, take as used" strategy, unwilling to replenish inventory in bulk, further dragging down market prices.

(2) Rebound Phase (late period): With the synergy of three positive factors, prices hit bottom and began to rebound.

• Supply-side contraction: Multiple phenol and acetone units underwent concentrated maintenance or reduced loads, leading to a decrease in the total supply of acetone in China. The operating rate of the phenol and acetone industry dropped by 2.5 percentage points. At the same time, the import volume in April was significantly lower than in March, and the port inventory continued to decline. The circulation of spot goods became tighter, and the supply and demand situation gradually improved, laying a solid foundation for the price rebound.

• Cost-side recovery: International crude oil prices rebounded slightly, prompting China's pure benzene prices to halt their decline, stabilize, and gradually rise. The cost-support role of phenol-ketone production has once again become prominent, strengthening producers' willingness to hold prices steady and prompting them to raise their quoted prices one after another, thereby driving a coordinated increase in market quotations.

• Marginal improvement in demand: The downstream bisphenol A and MMA industries in China have entered a cycle of replenishing essential stocks, with a slight increase in procurement demand from end-users. At the same time, traders and producers are jointly supporting prices, gradually improving market sentiment. Some downstream companies, concerned about continued price increases, have started to make small-scale stock replenishments, further driving the price recovery.

Looking at the short term (early May), the acetone market in China is expected to experience a strong fluctuation, with continued supply maintenance and cost support, and ongoing restocking by downstream buyers based on their needs. The price range to watch is 7,800-8,000 CNY/ton; if demand is insufficient, it will return to the 7,200-7,500 CNY/ton range for consolidation. In the long term, attention should be paid to plant maintenance, the trend of benzene, and terminal demand.