This week, caustic soda prices showed a weak trend (12.8-12.12)

December 12 news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices showed a weak trend this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 752 CNY/ton, and by the end of the week, it had decreased to 748 CNY/ton, a drop of 0.53%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.6% compared to last year. On December 11th, the chemical index stood at 778 points, up 1 point from the previous day, down 44.43% from the highest point of 1400 points (on October 23, 2021), and up 30.10% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period since December 1, 2011.)

II. Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices have been weak this week. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is around 690-780 CNY/ton. In Jiangsu, the caustic soda prices are stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 760-870 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices are consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (on a 100% basis) around 2100-2200 CNY/ton. The supply and demand pattern has not changed this week, and the supply remains loose. The recent enthusiasm of downstream alumina entering the market is average, and the market is still in a stalemate, with most purchases of caustic soda made on an as-needed basis. It is expected that the alumina market will show a weak fluctuation trend in the later period. In the short term, the price of alumina in China will fluctuate slightly, with the price range around 2700-2850 CNY/ton.

Analysts believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak recently, and this week's trend is also on the weaker side. Recently, downstream sectors in China have mostly been purchasing according to their needs. There are no positive factors supporting the Shandong market next week, and demand has not seen any substantial improvement. The overall supply and demand dynamics suggest that caustic soda prices may continue to consolidate. The specific trend will depend on the downstream market demand.