Methanol Market Conditions Consolidate and Operate

May 15th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from May 8 to 15 (up to 3:00 PM), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market rose from 3111 CNY/ton to around 3137 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 0.83% during the period, a maximum fluctuation of 1.90%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 22.95%. The Chinese methanol market mainly operated weakly. Although there was still a large amount of domestic supply, the volume of foreign arrivals was low, and the export volume was high, leading to a significant decrease in port methanol inventory, which provided some support to the market. However, due to the off-season for downstream demand and poor market buying sentiment, the market was mainly characterized by fluctuating and declining prices.

As of the close on May 15, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased. The main methanol futures contract 2609 opened at 2850 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2935 CNY/ton, a low of 2850 CNY/ton, and closed at 2907 CNY/ton, an increase of 23 yuan or 0.80% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 779,879, with open interest at 693,841, and an increase in open interest of 17,227 for the day.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of May 15, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

On the cost side, coal production and sales have remained largely balanced, with end-users adopting a cautious and conservative procurement approach. The firm pricing provides support for methanol. The cost factors for methanol are leaning toward favorable influences.

Coal/Power Coal (Upstream Raw Material) – Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side, from the downstream perspective, the market price of acetic acid continues to decline, the formaldehyde market is consolidating sideways, and the dimethyl ether market is operating steadily. Most downstream products are affected by the methanol price, with negative factors impacting the demand for methanol in China.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply side, Jutai (Tuoxian), China Coal Ordos, Yulin Yankuang, and Xinjiang Tianye are undergoing plant maintenance; Jutai (Tuoxian), Shaanxi Heimao, and Yulin Yankuang have resumed operations. Overall, the amount of lost production is greater than the amount recovered, leading to a decrease in output and a decline in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side of methanol is affected by positive factors.

On the international market, as of the close on May 14, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 632–634 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 161–163 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 526–528 per ton, up EUR 1 per ton.

Looking ahead, the Chinese methanol market is expected to oscillate in the near term between cost support, shrinking supply, and weak demand. Overall, methanol analysts forecast that the spot methanol market in China will mainly remain in a consolidation phase.