BDO Market Prices Narrowly Decline

May 15 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from May 8th to 15th, the price of BDO in China fell from 8,470 CNY/ton to 8,420 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 0.59% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 0.54%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.92%. Both the supply and demand for BDO in China have increased, and the supply-demand pressure is manageable. However, considering the significant increase in supply later on, while there is no noticeable increase in downstream demand, the supply-demand contradiction will increase, leading to a cautious bearish outlook for the future among industry players.

Supply side, in terms of facilities, there are restarts, catalyst changes, and maintenance, with the industry's capacity utilization rate slightly increasing month-over-month. The positive impact on BDO supply has weakened.

Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Facilities:

Cost Perspective: Regarding calcium carbide, the Chinese calcium carbide market has seen prices rise, partly due to insufficient transportation capacity, which has led to uneven shipments from producing enterprises. Peak-shaving production in Inner Mongolia has been stepped up, resulting in a decline in supply and accelerating inventory consumption, thereby boosting market confidence. As for methanol, trading in the Chinese methanol market has been generally moderate, with price centers in many regions showing weak downward trends and overall trading activity remaining subdued. With the calcium carbide market performing well while the methanol market remains weak, the cost impact on BDO is mixed.

Demand Side: On the downstream side, operating rates in the downstream industries of PTMEG, PBT, and TPU have increased, while load levels in other downstream sectors remain relatively stable. Overall downstream consumption has also risen, keeping supply-demand pressures manageable. However, considering that upcoming maintenance activities at production units involve relatively little capacity, and that previously maintained units have resumed stable operations after restarts, the supportive factors on the supply side are weakening. As downstream demand growth falls short of supply increases, the supply-demand contradiction in the BDO industry is expected to intensify. The demand side of BDO is being weighed down by bearish factors.

Market Forecast: After the previously shut-down units resumed operations and stabilized, other units remain largely unaffected for now, resulting in an increase in supply. In the next period, PTMEG production capacity will rise, boosting demand; meanwhile, raw material prices remain strong, putting significant cost pressure on BDO. Overall, BDO analysts expect the Chinese BDO market to remain relatively stable.