Widening Downward Spread, Weekly Decline in n-Butanol Exceeds 5%

May 22nd, news:

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of May 22, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China, is 7,133 CNY per ton. Compared to May 17 (when the reference price for n-butanol was 7,566 CNY per ton), the price has decreased by 433 yuan, a decrease of 5.73%.

I. Review of Price Trends

From the data monitoring system, it can be seen that this week (5.17-5.22), the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, showed a continuous downward trend, with significant price decreases every day, and the decline is showing an expanding trend. The market negotiation focus is continuously shifting towards the lower end. As of May 22, the reference price for n-butanol in the Shandong region of China is around 7,100-7,200 CNY per ton.

II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

Supply and Demand Imbalance: Strong Supply, Weak Demand

Currently, the previously shut down n-butanol production facilities in China are resuming operations, increasing market supply; however, downstream sectors (such as butyl acrylate and plasticizers) are slowing their procurement pace, showing a clear resistance to high-priced raw materials. Large-scale restocking activities have decreased, leading to a sluggish market with more supply than demand, which directly suppresses prices.

weakened cost support

The price of raw material propylene has fallen, loosening the cost support for n-butanol production. Companies are actively reducing prices to capture market share, which further drives down the overall price level.

Downstream industries drag down

The main downstream butyl acrylate enterprises in China have limited profit margins, and the number of shutdown units within the country is increasing, leading to poor demand for n-butanol. The market's pessimistic sentiment is growing, further exacerbating the price decline.

Future Market Forecast

Supply and Demand Direction Analysis

In the short term, the n-butanol market in China still faces multiple pressures such as a loose supply and demand situation, insufficient cost support, and weak demand from downstream sectors. Prices may continue to be under pressure. It is necessary to closely monitor the price fluctuations of upstream costs, changes in the operating rates of major downstream industries, and the maintenance schedules and inventory levels of n-butanol plants.

Technical Analysis

According to SpotCom data, during the period from May 17 to 21, the 10-day moving average of n-butanol crossed below the 20-day moving average, and the downward difference gradually expanded, predicting that the n-butanol market in China may experience an accelerated decline. Supporting indicators show that the price of n-butanol is at the median position for the long term (one-year position), suggesting that in the short term, it is likely that the n-butanol market in China will continue to fall. It is recommended to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand information for future market trends.