July 27th, according to reports
I. Today’s Market Conditions and Core Spot Prices (East China, Mainstream, Ex-factory, Tax-inclusive)
1) Spot market (bottle-grade virgin PET chips)
Factory listing: Quotations have been quickly lowered, with mainstream prices ranging from 7,250 to 7,380 CNY/ton.
Real orders and small orders negotiation: 7220～7320 CNY/ton, with larger orders having more room for negotiation.
Monthly long-term contract reference: around 7250 CNY/ton, down 120 to 180 CNY/ton from last Friday.
FOB Shanghai export price: US$980–1010 per ton; the overseas market follows suit with declining prices, and overseas buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach.
2) Futures market (main contract for PR bottle chip)
Today, the market opened significantly lower and saw a one-sided decline throughout the day, dominated by bears.
Closing price: 7,192 CNY/ton, down 390 yuan, a price decrease of 5.22%.
Intraday range: 7034 to 7442 yuan; with increased positions and downward movement, the technical level has been broken, and market panic sentiment is being released.
3) Upstream raw materials plummeted simultaneously (cost side collapsed)
PTA main contract: sharply lower, with cost support rapidly weakening.
Ethylene glycol (MEG) has weakened in tandem, and the overall production cost of polyester in China has shifted downward.
FUSE: International crude oil prices have fallen sharply, and geopolitical premiums have quickly dissipated, putting pressure on the entire polyester industry chain in China.
2. The Core Logic of Today's Market Trends in China
Crude oil makes a rapid pullback, and cost expectations collapse.
The earlier price rally had been driven by the crude oil premium triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Today, oil prices have plunged sharply, and the market now expects that the upside potential for PX and PTA has evaporated. As a result, long positions have begun to close out profits en masse, and the entire polyester supply chain is following suit, heading downward.
Supply and demand fundamentals have been weak for a long time, and the rebound lacks support from demand in China.
Chinese bottle chip production remains at a high level of 88% to 89%. With multiple facilities restarting and new capacities continuously being added, the overall supply of spot goods is loose.
Downstream beverage and preform companies in China are experiencing a weak peak season. They had already completed their advance stockpiling for the third quarter at previously low prices, and as soon as prices rebounded, they stopped restocking, only maintaining just-in-time purchases to meet essential needs, without providing sustained buying support for price increases.
Futures plummeting leads to a collapse in spot market sentiment in China.
The market quickly broke down, traders panicked and sold off, and factories were forced to lower their quotes to promote sales, forming a negative feedback loop of "futures fall → spot prices follow → transactions weaken."
The few short-term bullish factors that remain.
Currently, it is the traditional peak season for summer beverages in China, and there is still rigid demand from downstream. After a significant drop, there is an expectation of replenishing stocks at low levels.
Some facilities have short-term maintenance plans, which slightly ease supply pressures.
Processing fees remain persistently low, and after prices fall to a certain range, factories in China may increase their willingness to reduce production to protect prices.
III. Short-Term Market Outlook (3–7 Days)
Market sentiment: Volatile and weak, with wide fluctuations, making it easier for the focus to shift downward rather than upward.
This round of price increase is a cost-driven rebound, not a recovery in demand. After the geopolitical benefits fade, the market will be dominated again by the fundamentals of supply and demand balance.
Price range reference (East China water bottle-grade spot goods)
Support range: 7,150–7,200 CNY/ton; resistance range: 7,400 CNY/ton
If crude oil continues to weaken, there is a possibility that the spot price could test the 7100 level; only if crude oil stabilizes and rebounds will there be an opportunity for the market to recover.
Key focus:
① International crude oil continues to fluctuate in direction;
② PTA plant maintenance progress;
③ Downstream production and sales rate, and bidding prices for long-term contracts from major manufacturers; ④ Inventory changes at bottle flake plants.
