Weak Demand Leads to Stable Yet Declining Toluene Market in August

August 29 update

According to the commodity market analysis system, the toluene market in August 2025 experienced a fluctuating decline. From August 1st to 29th, the price of toluene in China fell from 5,570 CNY per ton to 5,440 CNY per ton, with a decrease of 2.33% during the period.

In the first half of the month: The toluene market experienced narrow, volatile fluctuations this week, with overall price movements remaining relatively mild. In the Shandong region, some companies are currently prioritizing self-consumption over external sales, while those still offering products for export are largely relying on pre-sales. Meanwhile, refineries have generally maintained stable pricing. In the East China market, both bearish and bullish factors coexist, leading to a cautious trading environment as supply and demand continue to balance. Although the South China region faces slightly tighter local supply conditions, weakening crude oil prices are weighing on market sentiment, yet the overall market remains surprisingly steady.

Late month: In Shandong region, the listed prices continued to decline due to poor sales at the end of the month. However, the overall downstream purchasing intention was low, and the willingness to buy was weak. The overall demand remained weak. Although the upstream actively reduced prices, the downstream market participation was low, leading to an overall downward trend in the market with limited transactions.

Cost Perspective: As of the 26th, the settlement price for the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $63.25 per barrel, while the October Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.22 per barrel. During this pricing cycle, crude oil prices experienced predominantly volatile movements. On one hand, OPEC+ announced that it had already achieved its cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, effectively marking the group’s early exit from its over-2.2 million bpd production-cut agreement—one year ahead of schedule. This news weighed negatively on the oil market. On the other hand, escalating tensions in Europe and subsequent peace talks have eased geopolitical supply risks, while weak global macroeconomic data, coupled with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, have further limited any positive momentum in the crude oil market.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene production is operating normally, with stable production and mostly self-used products, maintaining a balanced production and sales. As of August 29, the East China company's quotation was 5,450 CNY/ton, the North China company's quotation was 5,300 CNY/ton, the South China company's quotation ranged from 5,550 to 5,600 CNY/ton, and the Central China company's quotation was 5,550 CNY/ton.