August 10 news
Recently, the Chinese butyl acrylate market has shown a trend of stabilizing and rebounding from a low point. By analyzing this price recovery logic from dimensions such as cost, supply, demand, and industry player operations, it fully presents the phased changes in the chemical monomer market.
I. Market Price Trends: Rapid Recovery in the Lower Range
Data monitoring shows that at the beginning of July, the average transaction price of butyl acrylate in East China fell to 6,750 CNY/ton, reaching the bottom price range over the past three years. Market transactions were mainly characterized by low inventory and just-in-time restocking, with no sustained support for a price increase. Starting from mid-July, market prices began a continuous upward trend. By July 16, the mainstream quotation in the region rose to 7,850 CNY/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 1,100 CNY/ton. On July 15, the ex-factory quotation for butyl acrylate in North China by a leading Chinese company was adjusted to 8,300 CNY/ton, with a single-day increase of 800 CNY/ton. The significant price adjustment by the leading enterprise led to a synchronized upward shift in the spot market focus. By late July, the main transaction range in the Chinese market stabilized at 8,000-8,300 CNY/ton, representing a price increase of over 15% compared to the low point at the beginning of the month, completing a bottom-rebound trend.
II. Core Drivers of Price Increases
(1) Rigidity in the upward trend of upstream raw material costs
Propylene is the core raw material for butyl acrylate production. At the beginning of this market trend, the spot price of propylene rose first. Combined with the impact of international geopolitical tensions, which pushed up the prices of crude oil, propane, and other basic energy products, the cost of the propylene supply chain also increased. The cumulative cost increase for raw materials exceeded 1,200 CNY per ton, directly providing a bottom support for the price of butyl acrylate and reversing the previous situation of cost inversion and industry losses. The increase in the price of upstream raw materials formed a top-down transmission chain, leading to a synchronized increase in the factory prices of acrylic acid, butyl acrylate, and other ester products.
(2) Leading manufacturers are collectively holding prices steady, leading to a tightening of supply.
Chinese acrylic acid butyl ester industry leading enterprises simultaneously adjusted their factory prices, enhancing the expectation of market supply contraction. From July 14 to 16, multiple companies increased the prices of acrylic acid and acrylic acid butyl ester products across the board, with some regions seeing a single price increase of up to 800 CNY per ton; Wanhua Chemical continuously raised product prices from July 13 to 15, with a single price increase of 200-400 CNY per ton; Huayi Group followed suit with a single price increase of 100-500 CNY per ton.
At the same time, multiple production units in the industry have experienced reduced output and lower operating rates, leading to a decrease in the amount of spot goods that companies can ship. The overall market inventory has fallen to the lowest level of the year, with the low inventory situation strengthening the resolve to maintain spot prices and easing the previous situation of ample supply.
(3) Downstream industries' rigid demand for restocking releases demand support
Butyl acrylate is mainly used in downstream industries such as coatings, water-based emulsions, and adhesives. In early July, downstream emulsion companies concentrated on contract deliveries and spot replenishment, leading to a concentrated release of rigid demand procurement. This consumed the available market supply, improving the previously sluggish trading situation. Against the backdrop of continuously rising raw material prices, the quotations for downstream emulsion products also tentatively increased. The price transmission channel along the industrial chain gradually opened up, forming a mutually beneficial supply and demand situation.
3. Impact of Industrial Chain Linkages
The price increase of butyl acrylate has led to synchronized fluctuations in upstream and downstream products. The demand outlook for upstream acrylic monomers is positive, and market quotes have strengthened accordingly; other products in the same chain, such as methyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate, have maintained slight adjustments, while 2-ethylhexyl acrylate has seen a small increase. The prices of emulsion raw materials like styrene and MMA have also risen. In mid-to-late July, the mainstream market price of styrene was 8,750-8,800 CNY/ton, with a weekly price increase of nearly 1,000 yuan. The market price of MMA has stabilized above 10,300 CNY/ton. The cost of the entire emulsion raw material sector has increased, significantly raising the cost pressure on midstream and downstream production enterprises.
4. Forecast for Future Market Trends
Based on a comprehensive review of industry news and market insights, the butyl acrylate market will continue to be supported in the short term by both high costs and low inventory levels, making it highly probable that spot prices will remain relatively strong through early August. In the medium to long term, as plant restart plans gradually take effect, the industry’s estimated production volume for August is expected to increase significantly month-on-month, which will help gradually ease the current tight spot supply situation. Meanwhile, terminal demand from downstream industries such as coatings and emulsions remains limited, restricting the room for continued substantial price increases. As a result, the market may shift from a unidirectional upward trend to a range-bound trading pattern.
Industry organizations have indicated that the key indicators to watch in the subsequent market will focus on three main dimensions: the price trend of upstream propylene raw materials, the operating load of butyl acrylate production facilities in China, and the operating rate of the downstream terminal coatings industry. Changes in these variables will directly determine the range of market price fluctuations.
