August 18th, news:
Today, the butadiene market in China continues to show a trend of manufacturers maintaining prices, with the market slightly strengthening. However, downstream demand is only maintaining rigid demand procurement, and transactions are light, lacking significant support from the demand side. The average difference indicator shows that the current state is in a strong consolidation (bullish), and considering the price cycle position, the 1-year cycle is at a medium-low level, indicating limited downward space, while the 60-day cycle is at a high level, limiting the short-term upward potential.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-17) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-16) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 120.00 | 200.00 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 364.67 | 328.00 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 337.67 | 266.00 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current deviation change direction combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating (with a bias towards strong consolidation). Reason: The 5-day average difference has decreased compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences continue to expand. The directions of change for these three are not entirely consistent, which fits the category of oscillation. Among them, the 10-day and 20-day average differences maintain positive growth, indicating that mid-term support is still present. Therefore, it is judged as a strong consolidation with a bullish bias.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1 year cycle price position: at a medium to low level, with limited room for decline
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-high range, with some upward pressure.
60-day price cycle position: High, with limited short-term upside potential.
Overall, butadiene prices have some support in the medium term, but in the short term, they are constrained by high levels and limited downstream demand, limiting the upside potential and keeping the risk of a decline relatively low.
V. Trend Chart Display
VI. Supplementary Market Updates
Recently, Chinese butadiene manufacturers have shown a strong intention to maintain prices. On August 17, Dongming Petrochemical's external sales bottom price was 11,300 CNY/ton, and Satellite Chemical's starting auction price was 10,900 CNY/ton; Sinopec's regional execution prices remained high. However, downstream demand is limited to rigid demand procurement, with light trading, and the lack of favorable support for demand has led to a narrow and slightly strong market consolidation. In the international market, on August 12, the Asian butadiene China CFR was quoted at 1,365-1,373 USD/ton, and the European FOB Rotterdam was at 970-978 USD/ton, with overall external market support for China being limited.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
