August 20 news
On the 19th, the spot market for natural rubber continued its relatively strong performance. Support came from stable-to-slightly-rising raw material prices in Thailand, the upstream producing region. Traders in Qingdao raised their quoted prices by RMB 100-200 per ton. The mean-reversion indicator suggests that the market is currently in a volatile pattern with an early warning of price resistance (leaning toward bullish). Over the past year, prices have remained at mid-to-high levels, with limited room for further increases but exhibiting strong resilience against declines. In the short term, it’s crucial to monitor the release of downstream demand and the guidance provided by futures markets.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-19) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-18) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 99.16 | 105.00 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 65.84 | 40.00 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 159.58 | 167.92 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of mean difference change directions is (-, +, -), indicating an anti-dip warning (bullish bias) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The directions of change for the three moving average differences (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) compared to the previous day are not completely consistent, meeting the criteria for an oscillating market; at the same time, the 10-day moving average difference has widened, indicating that the support in the medium term has strengthened. Coupled with the support from the rise in upstream raw materials, the overall pattern shows a resilient and slightly bullish oscillation.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1-year cycle price is in the mid-high range, indicating limited short-term upside potential, but under the current resistance to decline warning signal, the downside risk is also relatively controllable. Subsequently, attention should be paid to whether the price can break through the pressure of the mid-high range.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Supplementary Market Dynamics
Upstream raw materials: On August 19, 2026, the Thai natural rubber raw material market showed stable-to-slight increases. Latex was quoted at 75.00 Thai baht per kilogram (+0.50 Thai baht per kilogram), cup lump rubber at 69.00 Thai baht per kilogram (+0.20 Thai baht per kilogram), and smoked sheet rubber remained stable at 85.50 Thai baht per kilogram.
Spot market: The price of natural rubber in the Qingdao area has risen, with merchants increasing their quotations by 100~200 CNY/ton. The mainstream prices for 24-year Yunnan Bao/Guangken/Haibao are 17,200~17,350 CNY/ton; for 25-year Yunnan Bao/Guangken/Haibao, the mainstream prices are 17,300~17,450 CNY/ton; and for Vietnamese 3L, the mainstream prices are 18,300~18,400 CNY/ton.
Import and export data: In July 2026, China’s exports of new inflatable rubber tires totaled 790,000 tons, down 10.2% both month-on-month and year-on-year. In June 2026, Malaysia’s natural rubber export volume increased by 30.8% year-on-year to 38,862 tons, of which 55.8% was exported to China.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
