October 16th, news
Recently, spot prices for natural rubber have been on a steady downward trend. In the Qingdao region, spot quotations have cumulatively fallen by more than RMB 1,000 per ton over the past three days. Technical indicators show that current prices have dropped to the 20-day moving average, and with one-year price levels remaining in a high range, there is limited room for further short-term gains. On the supply-and-demand front, China’s rubber imports in September declined 20.8% year-on-year, while raw material prices in Thailand edged up. However, weak year-on-year growth in Chinese passenger-car sales provides insufficient support for downstream tire demand. As a result, natural rubber prices are likely to trade in a narrow range at elevated levels in the near term.
Data Explanation
The latest available data is up to October 15, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of October 15, 2026 | Value as of October 14, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -550.00 | -121.67 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 139.16 | 264.17 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 306.67 | 322.91 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current three deviations have changed in the same direction as the previous day, all being negative, which is a clear signal of a decline.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current trend in natural rubber prices is clearly downward. The reason for this judgment is that the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day are all consistent and downward, meeting the criteria for a clear downward trend according to the moving average difference method.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Natural rubber prices are at a medium-high level for the 60-day and 3-month cycles, and at the 5th tier (high) for the 1-year cycle, with limited room for further increases.
Five, Display of Trend Charts
Six, Fundamental References
Spot Market: On October 15, the natural rubber market in Qingdao weakened and declined. Spot traders lowered their offers by RMB 450–600 per ton. For 2024‑grade Yunbao, Guangken, and Haibao, mainstream quotes ranged from RMB 19,000 to 19,300 per ton; for 2025‑grade domestic rubber, the prevailing range was RMB 19,150–19,400 per ton; and for Vietnamese 3L, the typical price was RMB 20,250–20,400 per ton.
Import end: In September 2026, China imported a total of 588,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a decrease of 20.8% compared to the same period in 2025.
Raw Materials: On October 14, natural rubber prices in Thailand rose across the board. Smoked sheet was quoted at 90.50 Thai baht per kilogram, up 0.50 baht; ribbed smoked sheets at 89.00 baht per kilogram, up 0.50 baht; and cup lump at 81.00 baht per kilogram, up 1.00 baht.
Demand side: In September 2026, China’s narrow‑definition passenger car retail sales are projected at 1.618 million units, up 5% month over month from August but down 28% year over year. Downstream tire manufacturers are accelerating their overseas capacity expansion, with Senqilin planning to establish a joint venture with a Turkish firm to build a tire production facility with an annual capacity of 7 million units.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
