October 20th, according to reports
Since October, the natural rubber market in China has experienced a pattern of first rising and then falling, with significant fluctuations. Data shows that as of October 20th, the price of natural rubber in China was around 19,341 CNY per ton, an increase of 1.27% from 19,100 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month, with the highest point during the period reaching 19,991 CNY per ton. At the beginning of the month, raw material prices supported the market to rise, but by mid-month, weak downstream orders caused the natural rubber price to fall under pressure after peaking.
At the beginning of the month, rainfall in southern Thailand disrupted tapping operations, keeping Thai rubber prices at elevated levels in October. Meanwhile, limited production increases in China’s Yunnan and Hainan provinces have kept raw material prices firm, providing support to natural rubber prices. In addition, port inventories of natural rubber have remained relatively stable, offering further price support. As of October 18, 2026, total bonded and general‑trade natural rubber inventories in the Qingdao region stood at 579,800 tons.
During the National Day holiday, tire production was concentratedly halted, with the operating rate of all-steel tires dropping to as low as 26.64% and semi-steel tires to 24.52%. After the holiday, the operating rates recovered to 53.31% for all-steel tires and 57.80% for semi-steel tires. Orders were weak, and there was caution in purchasing high-priced natural rubber, putting pressure on the high prices of natural rubber in China.
Outlook:
From a technical perspective: The spot price of natural rubber has fallen below the 5-day moving average in the short term, entering a correction phase. The 5/10/20-day moving averages remain in a bullish formation, indicating that the medium-term upward trend is still intact, with the moving averages forming a support band. After a significant rise, profits from long positions are being realized, leading to short-term consolidation to digest the price increase. The upper resistance is near the previous high, and the lower support can be referenced by the 20-day moving average.
Fundamentally, in the short term, the market will maintain a high-level fluctuation pattern. When the weather is stable, the realization of peak production and inventory accumulation will suppress prices; if there are continuous rains and floods in southern Thailand again, there will be opportunities for a rebound in the market, but due to weak demand, the upward space is limited.
