September 1st News
This diesel price analysis is based on the latest publicly available data as of August 31, 2026. It uses the method of mean difference to determine the trend and signal attributes of the price movement, while also integrating recent crude oil market conditions, supply and demand fundamentals, and the situation of the upstream and downstream industrial chain. This provides an objective market reference for relevant market participants. The most recent data available is up to August 31, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026.08.31) | Yesterday's Value (2026.08.30) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 197.29 | 18.46 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 50.50 | 32.35 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 212.48 | 213.42 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (+, +, -), which align with the characteristics of a strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current diesel price trend in China is judged to be fluctuating, with the reason being that the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, meeting the criteria for a fluctuating trend. The nature of the fluctuation is characterized as a strong rebound with a bullish bias.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The current diesel prices for 60 days, 3 months, and 1 year in China are all at the 5th level (high position) out of 5 levels, indicating limited room for further increases.
5. Trend Chart Display
VI. Recent Market Background
Policy Update: At 24:00 on August 28, 2026, China’s refined oil price adjustment window will open, marking the eleventh retail price increase of the year. So far this year, refined oil price adjustments have followed a pattern of “eleven increases, five decreases, and one suspension.”
Upstream crude oil market: In mid-to-late August, international crude oil prices fluctuated. As of August 28, the settlement price for the October contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $83.40 per barrel, while the settlement price for the November contract of Brent crude oil futures was $88.10 per barrel. U.S. diesel inventories have fallen to historically low levels for this time of year. As of the week ending August 21, distillate fuel oil inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week, 14% below the five-year average for the same period, providing fundamental support for diesel prices.
Chinese spot market: In late August, the price of diesel from independent refineries in China showed an overall upward trend. On August 31, the price range for diesel from independent refineries in the northeastern region was 8,100-8,200 CNY per ton, while in the northwestern region, the price range was 7,800-7,900 CNY per ton.
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
