October 9th News
On October 8, 2026, the Chinese PVC spot market was largely stable with minor fluctuations. Spot offers mostly remained unchanged, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, leading to weak transaction activity. From the perspective of the average difference indicator, the current PVC is in a mild correction phase, with prices under pressure at a mid-to-high level in the short term. In the medium to long term, the downward space for PVC prices is limited. The overseas PVC price monopoly case and the global plastic industry merger wave may have a potential impact on the supply and demand pattern of the industry in the medium to long term.
Data Description
The latest available PVC data is up to October 8, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value on 2026-10-08 | Value on 2026-10-07 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -52.00 | 0.00 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 12.00 | 39.10 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 87.20 | 80.60 | + |
2. Signal status judgment
Moderate pullback (bearish, pullback in nature)
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current PVC price trend is fluctuating (bearish). Reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences do not completely align in their direction of change compared to the previous day, with the symbol combination being (-, -, +), which fits the criteria for a mild correction (bearish) signal under the average difference method. Additionally, the current spot market in China is characterized by a strong wait-and-see sentiment and poor trading, leading to short-term price pressure and weaker performance.
4. Position Space Reference
60-day cycle price is at a moderate to high level, with limited short-term upside potential and room for a slight correction.
The 3-month cycle price is at a mid-to-high level, leaving some room for a pullback.
1-year cycle price is in the mid-low range, with limited room for decline in the medium to long term.
5. Trend chart display
6. Latest Market Trends
China's spot market: On October 8, 2026, the PVC market in Linyi region was largely stable with minor fluctuations. Futures made narrow adjustments, and most spot dealers maintained their quotes. The mainstream quotation for calcium carbide method 5 type was in the range of 4,860-4,920 CNY/ton. The market was dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment, and trading performance was poor.
Overseas Industry Perspective: A U.S. federal judge recently ruled that most of the claims in the PVC pipe manufacturers’ price‑fixing case may proceed. The plaintiffs allege that several companies engaged in horizontal price‑fixing, and the case will now move into the discovery phase. If the allegations are substantiated, the implicated firms could face treble damages. Future developments could reshape pricing dynamics on the overseas PVC supply side.
Industry Trends: PMCF’s outlook indicates that the global plastics industry’s M&A activity in 2026 is expected to surpass 2025 levels. In 2025, approximately 420 deals were completed worldwide, up 5% year over year. Generational retirements, ample private‑equity capital, and improving EBITDA multiples are set to continue driving deal growth, potentially triggering medium- to long-term adjustments in the global PVC supply landscape.
7. Industry Chain Reference
Upstream core commodities: chlorine, dichloroethane, vinyl chloride, calcium carbide, and ethylene.
Downstream core products: PVC foam, PVC automotive parts, cables, wires, shoe soles, PVC profiles, toys, PVC pipes, synthetic leather, PVC sheets, PVC films
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
