Affected by basic industrial raw materials, the curing agent of powder coatings has both increased!

Affected by the rise of "three acids and two alkalis" basic industrial raw materials, upstream companies are gradually transmitting downward price pressure, and the entire chemical industry may be affected.

In 2021, China's export price of phosphate fertilizer will rise to a new high in recent years, and the price of domestic sales will climb to the highest level in the past ten years. From the demand side, the price of sulfur-sulfuric acid will rise all the way.

At the same time, sulfur imports are high and tight. Since last year, dragged down by the epidemic, the operating rate of overseas smelters has plummeted, making overseas sulfur supplies tight, and China's sulfur imports have declined accordingly. Data show that in 2021, domestic port sulfur stocks will drop all the way to about 1.5 million tons, and port pelletized sulfur prices will continue to soar to a new high in the past decade.

In addition, the continuous increase in global ocean freight has also further pushed up the price of sulfur imports. At present, the price of sulfur has risen from 870 CNY/ton in early 2021 to the current 1,900 CNY/ton, an increase of 118%.

As a downstream product of sulfur-sulfuric acid, the export volume and price of sulfuric acid have also risen unprecedentedly in recent years. Supply in many acid markets is in short supply. The average price of 98% sulfuric acid has reached a ten-year high. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to July this year, my country's sulfuric acid production (100% equivalent) was 53.705 million tons, a cumulative increase of 8.5% over the same period last year.

In terms of Caustic Soda and soda ash, due to the decline in overseas high temperature in July and August, the export of domestic caustic soda companies increased, the overall social inventory fell, and the supply and demand were tightly balanced. In addition, the supply of caustic soda decreased due to factors such as the shortage of Calcium Carbide and maintenance.

On September 7, Baichuan Yingfu data showed that the domestic market price of solid caustic soda rose by 200 yuan-500 CNY/ton, and the price was 2542 yuan-3,500 CNY/ton, the highest increase was over 10%. The price of solid caustic soda rose from 2434 CNY/ton on August 25 to 3084 CNY/ton on September 7, an increase of 26.7%, and the price of liquid caustic soda rose from 705 CNY/ton on August 25 to September 7 740 CNY/ton, an increase of nearly 50% in two weeks.

In addition, in the past August, the number of soda ash companies that performed overhauls was relatively large. Affected by this, in September, the number of pending orders for soda ash enterprises was still relatively abundant. Some soda factories' orders were scheduled to the end of this month, and individual manufacturers could be scheduled to the beginning of October.

In this case, soda ash manufacturers still have a certain willingness to increase prices. The data shows that the domestic soda ash market price continued to move upwards on the basis of the original high in September. The ex-factory price of light soda ash is 2550 CNY/ton, and the delivery price of heavy soda ash is 2750 CNY/ton.

According to data, "three acids and two alkalis" (namely, sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid, nitric acid, caustic soda, and soda ash) are used as basic industrial raw materials and are widely used in the production of various industrial products. It can be said that the rise of basic industrial raw materials will affect the downstream industries ranging from steel and aluminum to cement to coatings.

Not only the basic industrial raw materials, but the recent environmental protection and power rationing have also had a relatively large impact on various industries. At present, from "three acids and two bases" to downstream chemical materials, the supply capacity that can be released by multiple chemical products is slightly tight.

Taking powder coating raw material HAA curing agent as an example, the main raw materials that HAA needs are diethanolamine and dimethyl adipate, which account for about 60% of diethanolamine and about 40% of dimethyl adipate.

Among them, the supply of diethanolamine is mainly imported, joint venture, and domestically produced. However, currently, due to various factors such as the epidemic situation, the extension of shipping schedules, and anti-dumping, the import of diethanolamine is blocked. Superimposed on the impact of the rise in domestic basic raw materials, the current volume of diethanolamine in barrels has risen to about 11,500 CNY/ton.

The main production capacity of dimethyl adipate, another raw material of HAA, is in Shandong, and it is also in short supply due to "double restrictions" and environmental factors. According to company feedback, the price of dimethyl adipate will hardly fluctuate. The normal price is around 13,000 CNY/ton, but the price has been around 15,000 CNY/ton in the last 3 days.

The rise of HAA raw materials surprised many companies. It is understood that many HAA manufacturers do not have too much raw material inventory. The increase in raw materials means that the cost of HAA manufacturers has increased. If the company still has orders that have not been delivered, it may then have to subsidize part of the profit production.

In fact, HAA companies have responded quickly, and the market has heard that HAA prices have increased. It is understood that the current price of first-line brands ranges from 20,000 CNY/ton to 21,000 CNY/ton.

It is worth mentioning that in addition to the factors of the above-mentioned raw material price increase, due to the epoxy cost of indoor coatings, many companies have switched to outdoor system production. The increase in HAA consumption has also led to the increase in HAA prices.

According to powder coating companies, the production of outdoor powder coatings is inseparable from TGIC and HAA. TGIC is irritating to the human body, and the domestic control of TGIC is gradually strict, but the overall surface effect of TGIC will be better, and TGIC is basically still used in China. But like many export companies, because the EU has banned the use of TGIC, they use HAA. Although the overall effect of HAA may be a little worse, HAA is environmentally friendly.

Recently, due to the increase in the price of TGIC (for details, please click on the article "A major factory in East China has suddenly stopped production, and the supply of ring chlorine is tight! TGIC, epoxy resin sealing! A single discussion!", many companies have replaced TGIC with HAA, The amount of HAA increased and the proportion increased. Under the influence of multiple factors such as rising raw materials, its own "double limit" and the growth of downstream demand, HAA prices have been pulled up.

The industry predicts that HAA does not rule out the possibility of rising again in the later stage.