Industry pressure, 5 big changes, pig breeders are ready?

According to statistics from the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, since last August, there were 129 cases of African swine fever in China since the outbreak of African swine plague in August last year, so that 1 million 20 thousand pigs were killed.

According to official data, the direct loss and indirect panic elimination of this outbreak will reduce the pig industry by at least 20% in the short term. According to industry research and media interview data, it is not excluded that in 2019 the number of live pigs will be reduced by 40% nationwide.

Experts said that China will maintain a high-pressure situation for African swine fever in at least two or three years. The direct losses and indirect panic elimination may cause China's pig industry to face the situation of industrial decapitation, which will lead to the following five major problems. Pig sellers, are you ready?

1. Pork production capacity declined, pork gap increased sharply

Recent Chihua data predicted the pork gap in China in the future. Based on the output and import of corn and soybean, the feed consumption of live pigs was deduced. The total pork supply and demand gap reached 9.23 million tons in 2019 and 12.57 million tons in 2020. Obviously, this huge gap can not be quickly met by importing pork or developing cattle, sheep and poultry industries.

2. A large number of upstream and downstream enterprises are facing a shuffle and the relevant feed and veterinary drug industries will face a shuffle. The strong may transform into aquatic products, poultry or other fields, and the weak will be mercilessly eliminated by the market, while the sale of some conventional vaccines will also be replaced by disinfectants.

3. A large number of relevant personnel are facing unemployment risk which is the so-called "no skin exists, no hair will attach". With the transformation or collapse of a large number of enterprises, many people who are engaged in pig industry will leave voluntarily or forcibly, even with the major agricultural and animal husbandry colleges and universities in the next few years, the direction of student source training will be affected. According to statistics from the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, since last August, there were 129 cases of African swine fever in China since the outbreak of African swine plague in August last year, so that 1 million 20 thousand pigs were killed. 

4. Farming, transportation and consumption system has been adjusted. The long distance cross province of pig is likely to become a whole history. It is a general trend to transfer pork from pig to pork. The consumption habits of consumers will inevitably change. Beef, mutton and poultry may replace pork on people's table. On the one hand, a large number of pig farms were forced to close down, resulting in information blockage and eager to understand the external situation. On the other hand, with the rapid development of the new generation of communication methods such as the Internet, it is difficult to avoid the spread of rumors and panic, which undoubtedly increases the difficulty of truth dissemination and contributes to the aggravation of panic atmosphere.