Supply: Port Congestion Is Difficult To Relieve, And Labor Shortage Is Serious

Global port congestion remains serious, and in-port container ship capacity is still at a high level. As of October 2021, the global average 7-day container ship capacity in port reached 8.45 million TEU, up 7.9% year-on-year, accounting for 34.6% of the global capacity scale, up 1.2 pct year-on-year and up 3.5 pct year-on-year in 2019, reflecting a significant decline in global port operating efficiency. Among them, the U.S. West and U.S. East ports in port capacity increased significantly.

7-day average number of container ships 

Congestion relief at U.S. port terminals is a systematic project that cannot be resolved quickly in the short term. We believe that under existing conditions, terminal congestion may continue throughout 2022, absent major unexpected events. During the 90-day period (i.e., Nov. 15-Feb. 12) when high fines are imposed, coupled with the drop in China shipments during the Chinese New Year period in February, Asia-North America routes may be 80% of the normal month in February 2021, and the number of heavy containers in the Changluo region is expected to drop by 25%-35%. After that, in the second quarter of 2022, U.S. retailers will begin to increase inventory purchases, and the third quarter will enter the traditional U.S. consumer season, and it will be difficult to improve the port congestion relief. Therefore, under the existing conditions and in the absence of major unexpected events, terminal congestion may continue throughout 2022.