Soaring 50,000 Yuan / ton! The 'Price Surge' of Chemical Raw Materials Has Begun!

Recently, the lithium battery industry chain has reappeared in a hot situation. The price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 313,000 yuan, an increase of 675% compared with last year's low value; the price of lithium hydroxide was 260,000 CNY/ton, a 420% increase from last year's low value. The price of Changzhou Zhonglian's gold battery-grade lithium carbonate contract LC2206 has risen to 400,000 CNY/ton, so the "high price" is not worried about sales, and many customers who come to "beg for carbon" do not ask the price and take it when they have the goods. Some customers can't get the goods because of the "relationship" because the manufacturer has no excess inventory at all.

Dozens of chemicals have risen wildly, with the highest rise exceeding 50,000 CNY/ton

Benefiting from the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles at home and abroad, as well as the demand for electrochemical energy storage generated by the carbon neutrality commitments of various countries, the chemicals in the lithium battery industry chain seem to have embarked on a "prosperous road". According to the paint procurement network, it has only been less than half a month since the beginning of 2022. In addition to the "lithium family" mentioned above, there are also many hot and abnormal chemicals. Not only are the rises crazy, but "demand exceeds supply" has become mainstream. 

After the New Year's Day, the market for some chemical products such as neopentyl glycol, isobutyraldehyde, polyester resin, epoxy resin, and titanium dioxide began to pick up and rise, with a maximum increase of more than 50,000 CNY/ton. Follow up. The continuous price increase of some products has exacerbated the reluctance of manufacturers to sell. There are frequent cases of limited orders and closed orders. Traders have also started to stock up and plan to buy low and sell high for artificial speculation.

Isobutyraldehyde rose 7083.33 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 70.36%.

Potassium chloride rose 1360 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 47.06%.

Butadiene rose 1373.57 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 30.86%.

Lithium hydroxide rose by 51,666.67 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 23.85%.

Neopentyl glycol rose by 3,000 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 21.05%.

Lithium carbonate rose by 46,600 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 17.52%.

Polyester resin (indoor) rose 1,800 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 16.36%.

Butyraldehyde rose by 1100 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 14.01%.

Organosilicon rose by 3,500 CNY/ton during the year, or 13.57%.

Phenol rose 1,200 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 12.02%.

TDI rose by 1800 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 11.25%.

Liquid epoxy resin rose 2,600 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 10.10%.

Epichlorohydrin rose by 1,600 CNY/ton during the year, an increase of 10%.

Since the beginning of 2022, the prices of dozens of chemical raw materials have risen, of which the ton price of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate has risen by more than 10,000 yuan; the ton price of 16 raw materials such as isobutyraldehyde, lithium iron phosphate, silicone, and neopentyl glycol has risen by more than Thousands of yuan, and the price of the remaining 40 kinds of raw materials rose by more than 100 yuan per ton.

Coal up, oil up, chemicals prices up

One of the important factors driving up the price of chemicals is the price trend of bulk energy such as oil and coal. Since late December last year, global geopolitics have frequently occurred, and OPEC+’s monthly production increase of 400,000 barrels per day has been difficult to achieve, and the growth of global crude oil production has been less than expected. Affected by this, crude oil futures closed sharply higher, with New York crude oil closing at its highest level in two months. Brent crude rose $2.85, or 3.5%, to settle at $83.72 a barrel in March, its highest settlement since Nov. 9, 2021, with WTI and Brent already up in 2022 nearly 8%.

For the trend of oil prices in 2022, Goldman Sachs expects that the price of Brent crude oil will remain at around $85/barrel, and may even exceed $100/barrel; Blackstone predicts that international oil prices will rise to $100/barrel in 2022; JP Morgan believes that crude oil Factors such as the decline in inventories and the slow recovery of production capacity will push international oil prices to double-digit growth this year.

Another primary energy source, coal, has also seen its first round of gains recently. Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, announced that it will stop coal exports from January 1 to January 31. Affected by this, my country's thermal coal futures prices opened sharply higher on the first trading day of 2022. With the active replenishment of downstream storage, the coking coal market continues to strengthen, and the prices of various coal types have seen a new round of rise. Among them, the main coking coal and lean coal in Xiangning area rose by 200 CNY/ton, and the mainstream coal enterprises in Wuhai area generally rose by 150 yuan. / ton, Zichang gas coal rose 100 CNY/ton, Lingshi fertilizer coal rose another 50 CNY/ton to the spot exchange 2250 CNY/ton.

In the short term, whether it is the rise in crude oil or the rise in coal prices, the cost of the chemical industry chain is supported, and the price of chemical products has also caused the cost focus to rise. At the same time, since most companies did not stock up too much before the Spring Festival, it is expected that many companies will have centralized replenishment after the Spring Festival, and it will take a certain amount of time from the just resumption of work to full production, or there will be a shortage of supply. A more severe situation, the situation that money can't buy goods will also push the price of chemical products to rise again.