In 2021, Soda Ash Will Rise First And Then Fall, Reaching The Highest Point of 3687.5 Yuan / ton in Ten Years

In 2021, the price of soda ash will show a trend of rising first and then falling. Among them, it can be seen from the ten-year price chart of soda ash that the price of young soda ash in 2021 has reached a high level in ten years. From January to August, the price of soda ash was still at a relatively low level, which was not conspicuous. From August, the price began to rise sharply. Prices have fallen since the end of October.

Judging from the monthly k-column chart of soda ash, the price of soda ash will increase for more months and decrease for less months in 2021. Only in May, November and December the price fell, and the other months were mainly rising. And the highest rate of increase in September reached 34.05%.

The average market price of soda ash at the beginning of the year was about 1,340 CNY/ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 2,700 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 101.49%.

From January to March, domestic soda ash prices rose. On the one hand, the total domestic inventory of soda ash is relatively large, but the distribution is uneven across regions, and some manufacturers have tight inventories, leading to price increases; The market atmosphere is good. The recent rise in glass prices has a certain pulling effect on soda ash.

From April to June, it runs relatively smoothly from April to May. The operating rate is stable, and the glass price is running smoothly. The price rise in June, the rising glass market price drives the demand for raw material soda ash, and the downstream glass price rises, which is good for soda ash and supports the price of soda ash.

From July to September, the price of soda ash rose at a high level. Affected by dual control and power curtailment recently, some soda ash enterprises have shut down or reduced their installations, and the overall operating rate has dropped. It is expected that the short-term operating rate will remain low. According to data, the latest factory warehouse of soda ash is only 265,600 tons, which is at an absolute low level in the past three years. The market expects that the dual control measures such as power and production restrictions in the main production areas will continue. Down, inventories will remain low. Now the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery of pre-orders is mainly. In terms of upstream raw salt, the price has risen due to the double control policy. The price of glass is weak, and the glass protector and soda ash start a price game, and there is resistance to the high price of soda ash, but more soda ash is purchased on demand.

From October to December, the price in October rose by 15.32%, and the main reason for the rise was the influence of the dual control policy. Then the price of soda ash fell in November and December, mainly because the inventory of soda ash increased and the market sentiment was general. The downstream glass is mainly purchased on demand, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. Resistance to high prices of soda ash. At present, there is still resistance to the price of soda ash, and manufacturers implement a single negotiation.

As can be seen from the monitored upstream and downstream industry chain diagrams, we mainly look at the downstream consumption of soda ash for demand-side factors. Most of the domestic soda ash is used in industrial production, and this proportion can reach 96%. The mainstream consumers of soda ash are float glass and photovoltaic glass. Therefore, the downstream demand side of soda ash focuses on the glass industry. It is reported that the raw material soda ash accounts for about 30% of the production cost of float glass. Looking at the price rise and fall chart of the soda ash industry chain tracked by the business agency, it shows that the downstream price of light soda ash is rising rapidly, which supports the spot soda ash price to a certain extent. Among them, sodium metabisulfite rose 62.38%, bromine rose 59.43%, cryolite rose 25.86%, baking soda rose 84.41%, and glass fell 10.22%.

Demand side: The glass decline is from the fourth quarter. This is the price trend of glass in 2021. The average price of the glass market at the beginning of the year was 27.7 yuan/square meter, and the average price of the glass market at the end of the year was 24.87 yuan/square meter, down 10.22%. The highest point of the year was on September 14, at 38.75 yuan/square meter. Prices rose in the first, second, and third quarters, and began to fall in the fourth quarter.

Then look at the operating rate chart and inventory chart. From the operating rate, we can see that the operating rate of soda ash in 2021 will remain between 70-85%, and the operating rate will remain at a high level from January to May, starting from July. The decline was mainly due to the policy of limiting production and electricity, and manufacturers produced less soda ash.

It can be seen from the inventory chart that the inventory of soda ash was relatively high at the beginning of the year, of which it reached about 1.1 million tons in February, and the output dropped in August, September and October, about 200,000-400,000 tons, and the soda ash inventory at the end of the year was again Upward trend.

From the current supply point of view, the manufacturers are operating steadily, and there will be no major fluctuations in the operating rate. The safety inspection will also be attached great importance after the year before and after the Spring Festival. In terms of downstream glass, now affected by the general environment, as the temperature rises and the epidemic situation improves, the global environment will improve in March next year, and the demand for glass will rebound, or the demand for light soda ash will increase. Now the soda ash is already at a high operating rate, and the production of the Lianyungang plant has been shut down, so there may be a shortage of soda ash next year. It is comprehensively expected that soda ash may show a trend of first decline and then rise in 2022 next year, but the specific situation depends on downstream demand.