The contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth gets lower

On June 22, Liu Yuanchun, Vice President of Renmin University of China, delivered a speech at the "China Macroeconomic Forum" held by Renmin University of China. He said that technological progress is contributing less and less to the world. New technology can not be reflected in economic growth, while the new technology brings more profound conflicts. This deeper conflict is reflected in two aspects: first, the technological competition among the major powers will evolve into a full-scale white-hot political conflict; second, the global imbalance and inequality.

Liu Yuanchun pointed out that Sino-US trade conflict is to a large extent a conflict between two modes and two economies, and the foothold must be the conflict of technology. A key highlight is our control of 5G technology, standard control. "We will find that the geopolitical changes brought about by the current stringency on technological progress and the changes in competition and game among big powers have gone beyond our traditional imagination." As for the second aspect, he said that the most profound change brought about by the information technology revolution since the 1980s is global imbalance and inequality. "Many of us are begging for a factor that creates inequality. We want to use it to lead us out of this dilemma. It's basically a trick for the tiger. The answer is different. That is to say, it is impossible to beg for new technologies to change the problems we face. For example, when human organs can be printed in 3-D, genes can be coded and medicines can increase intelligence, the polarization between rich and poor will be more rapid, because only a few people with power and wealth can acquire this technology. "Another extreme hypothesis is that human technological progress has produced the elixir of immortality. Who will master the technology of immortality? That must be the elite, certainly not the ordinary people, because this technology and this resource must be scarce, "he said.

In addition, Liu Yuanchun cautioned that the way to deal with the global economic recession and stagnation of growth has been almost used. Firstly, the global debt is high, reaching US$2440 trillion by the end of 2018, accounting for 318% of GDP, making it the second highest point in history after 2016. Secondly, the high level of debt has greatly expanded the assets of the central bank. Third, the gap between the rich and the poor has widened further.

"Next you will see that the world economy is a little more pessimistic than you imagined, and even some structural changes will take place." Liu Yuanchun said, "This year's Global trade growth is 2.6%, which seems good. But I think maybe a new round of decline is just beginning. From this point of view, on the one hand, we need to see the resilience of China's economy, on the other hand, we still need to make a better forward-looking study on the pattern of the development and change of the world economy as a whole and the future situation.