Coal prices at ports will rise again this week

In late June, the coal price of the port changed from the stable operation in the early and middle stages, showing a straight upward trend. Up to now, the power coal in the 5500 cards market of Bohai Rim Port has risen from 595 CNY/ton to 610 CNY/ton. It is expected that the port coal price will continue to rise this week.

Firstly, the output and transportation of Sanxi coal are still limited by environmental protection, security inspection, coal management tickets and other factors, and the insufficient supply of high-quality goods still plagues the coastal coal market. At present, the daily traffic volume of Daqin Line is about 1.2 million tons, and the number of coalmines flowing to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Power Plant has increased slightly. The number of coalmines going to Qinhuangdao and other ports around the Bohai Sea has decreased slightly. The number of coalmines arriving at Qingang has decreased from 7310 cars last month to 6700 cars this month, a daily decrease of 610 vehicles; while the number of coalmines arriving and pulling at the port has not decreased, and the transport volume of the port has maintained a medium-high level. It makes the stock of Qingang Port decrease sharply and the high-quality coal is in short supply. Affected by the weakening downstream demand and poor sales of some Mongolian coals, the transportation volume of the Mongolian-Hebei Railway has also declined slightly. At present, the average daily transportation volume is about 170,000 tons, the storage of the three ports of Caofeidian is also declining, and the low-sulfur coal is also tense. Secondly, in the near future, due to the influence of large-scale rainfall in the south, the demand for civil electricity has been restrained, the daily consumption of power plants has been blocked, and the daily consumption of the six power plants has been hovering between 60-620,000 tons. However, with the arrival of "peak summer", the demand for coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation will increase dramatically. In summer, the temperature of the whole country keeps rising, and the refrigeration load of air conditioning is releasing continuously. East and South China will enter a state of high temperature. Once a climate of high temperature and little rain lasts for more than a week, the coal consumption of power plants will increase dramatically, and the coastal coal market will be unprecedented active. Therefore, in the case of the reduction of Changxie coal proportion, some small and medium-sized power plants began to haul coal to replenish stock in the market.

Again, the price of coal tends to stabilize in summer. This summer, due to the impact of staggered peak production in cement and other industries, industrial electricity consumption has been affected and coal consumption has decreased. On the supply side, due to the impact of coal price inversion, the enthusiasm of traders in shipping is not high, and the quantity of coal entering the port is limited, which makes the port delivery appear double-low supply and demand, and the port coal price remains stable. Although the increase of electricity load is expected in summer, the consumption of electricity and coal will slow down and the price of coal will rise too fast, which will lead to the policy "ceiling". If the price of coal turns around and falls rapidly, the cost of coal production and transportation will support the price of coal. In addition, security and environmental protection will continue. When the price of coal falls below the shipper's psychological price, the coal resources entering the Bohai Rim Port will appear sharply. Reduction. Therefore, it is expected that the coal price will be relatively stable in summer, and will keep running at 610-630 CNY/ton, and there will be no big fluctuations. At present, the profit of major equipment manufacturing industry and coal industry has recovered, the profit growth rate of high-tech manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industries has changed from negative to positive, and the enterprise benefit has improved. The transformation of economic structure and the promulgation of consumption policies. It is expected that in the second half of the year, consumption will have the potential of steady growth and will continue to stimulate coal demand. In the second half of the year, the situation of coal market and coal shipment around Bohai Sea ports will be improved.