Dealing with the Impact of Complex International Situation on Economic Security

At present, the global economy is facing enormous uncertainties, the situation is complex and changeable, there is a "gray rhinoceros" risk, impact on world economic security. Faced with the impact of the current complex international situation on China's economy, we must have strategic thinking and take correct measures to actively respond, in order to turn danger into opportunity and safeguard national economic security. Overall, the current global economic situation is complex and changeable, with unprecedented challenges. On the one hand, the momentum of global economic growth is gradually weakening. In 2018, the U.S. economy grew by about 2.9%, but this economic performance was almost entirely due to a large number of fiscal stimulus measures, such as tax cuts and spending increases. This trend is difficult to sustain. Political uncertainty in Europe has a strong impact on the economy, leading to a decline in market confidence. These uncertainties include Britain's departure from Europe, the challenges facing the French Macron government and the political crisis in the German Parliament. Economic factors such as credit crunch and trade tension have worsened the eurozone economy. In the long-term weak economic environment, Japan's economic growth has experienced a cyclical decline. In other countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, political uncertainty is also increasing, seriously affecting economic development. On the other hand, global commodity and financial market risks increase. According to relevant reports, commodity prices will continue to fluctuate and oil prices will have downside risks. The process of the Fed's interest rate increase and contraction is one of the most important factors affecting the RMB exchange rate. Although the Fed's rate hike contraction has slowed down, it will still increase in 2019. We need to pay close attention to the trend of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2019. In addition, another important source of risk affecting the global economy is the sharp decline in World Trade growth, which has dropped from over 5% at the beginning of 2018 to almost zero. As trade conflicts may escalate, shrinking world trade will further drag down the global economy. At the same time, fluctuations in capital and commodity markets mean that the global financial environment is tightening. At present, the misjudgment of major economies such as the United States is the greatest threat to global economic growth. With the further slowdown of global economic growth, the risk of damage caused by misjudgments between some major economies will continue to rise in the future. After the international financial crisis in 2008, the West has not completely stepped out of the recession, the income gap has further widened, the unemployment rate has risen, leading to the rise of populism, political polarization and social tearing. Correspondingly, China's economy has maintained relatively rapid growth and leaped to become the second largest economy in the world. In this context, Western suspicions about China have deepened and misjudgments about China's economic development have intensified. In particular, some political forces use distorted international trade data to distort facts, incite ignition, and unite with relevant countries to contain China, which poses a greater threat to China's economic security. 

Generally speaking, global economic uncertainty is both dangerous and organic for China. The most important thing is to prevent and prevent the external environment from triggering the convergence, expansion and upgrading of China's risk chain.

First of all, we should be highly alert to the formation of the risk of "gray rhino". The greatest characteristic of risk is chain or network structure. Risk will gradually spread and magnify in the risk chain and risk network transmission. If improper control or external shocks occur, a risk point may be detonated, leading to systemic risk. At present, China's risk chain in various fields is deriving, and it is possible to cross-form a risk network. In this regard, we need to be highly vigilant and take precautions against gradual decline.

Secondly, we should pay close attention to the magnification of global uncertainty caused by the outward transfer of risks from some big western countries. Today's world is in an unprecedented change in a century, and the global economy has entered a "new mediocre era". With the United States and some European countries as the center, many contradictions such as the imbalance of economic structure and social polarization have accumulated in Western countries. With the influence of new technology revolution and climate crisis, international economy and global governance will face great uncertainty in the future. Against this background, some countries have tried to transfer risks and uncertainties to other countries. The global risk sharing mechanism has become a "mutually harmful" mechanism of risk, which enlarges the global risk in a geometric series. In such a situation, China is also facing more external shocks and challenges, and the possibility of related risks will increase.

In addition, the risk of policy errors has increased through the double test of trade frictions and debt risk resolution. Populism is highly contagious and harmful, and fiscal and taxation issues are more sensitive, which we need to attach great importance to.

Finance has great potential in dealing with external shocks

In the uncertainties of the global economy, we should find the certainty of our own development, have strategic thinking and sense of distress, and be prepared for danger, defensive and offensive. Finance is the foundation and important pillar of national governance, and also the mainstay of dealing with external shocks. In order to safeguard national economic security in the current complex international situation, we must pay attention to the role of finance. Firstly, we should play the role of fiscal risk dispersal mechanism. In the process of dealing with external shocks, the most effective way to prevent risks is to disperse risks. For China's economy as a whole, the current external risk shocks are completely controllable. But for the part, if the risk is not reasonably dispersed, it may cause serious consequences. Reasonable risk diversification is the art of realizing the comprehensive balance of risks. In the process of dealing with external shocks, comprehensive balance should be made.