What happened to the coastal coal market during the busy season?

Everyone is talking about the current coal market is in the "peak season is not busy", the author believes that this summer, the so-called peak season of coal stocks, the market downturn, the weak rise in coal prices, what are the main reasons?

1. Advanced coal storage in power plants has led to high inventory of power plants

In May and June of this year, the weather in the South became warmer, hydropower was restored, thermal power was reduced, and daily consumption of power plants decreased. On the upstream side, railway transportation has returned to normal, and coal enterprises have increased the number of transports, which has promoted the continuous improvement of stocks of ports around the Bohai Sea and power plants downstream. Before the arrival of the peak season of coal use, coastal power plants are also actively increasing the amount of coal stored, so as to promote the user coal storage to a high level.

Starting from June 5, 135 cement enterprises stopped production for 120 days at staggered peak. With the arrival of plum rain season, the hydroelectric power will be restored and the thermal power will be reduced. By the beginning of July, coal storage in key power plants had risen to 90 million tons, and that in six coastal power plants had risen to 17.89 million tons, an increase of 13.7 million tons and 2.28 million tons, respectively, compared with the beginning of May. Before the arrival of "peak summer", the number of days available for coal storage in power plants in coastal areas of China has risen to a 27-day high. Coal storage covers the first half of summer, affecting the enthusiasm of users to haul and replenish storage.

2. Inventory of shipping port has rebounded, coal import has maintained a growth trend

Changxie coal cashier rate has increased, the number of coal enterprises shipped is relatively stable, better meet the downstream demand for coal; In addition, Hohhot Railway Administration has lowered the Tang-Hu line coal tariff, which has promoted the enthusiasm of customers in Inner Mongolia, Qinhuangdao Port and Hefei. The storage of coal in Caofeidian Port of CITIC has rapidly returned to normal level, high-quality coal is not scarce, and coal prices lack the basis for a substantial increase.

In the first half of this year, 154 million tons of coal were imported, an increase of 5.8% over the same period last year. Since this year, although China has taken measures such as prolonging customs clearance time of imported coal and intensifying inspection, the number of imported coal is still increasing. At present, the number of imported coal waiting for customs clearance in major receiving and unloading ports exceeds expectations, and the number of imported coal continues to remain high, which has a negative impact on the summer coal market and domestic coal price trend.

3. The impact of trade war, the sluggish industrial electricity use

Macro-economy, especially the sluggish industrial economy, makes consumption difficult to perform better. Trade friction reduces the profit margin of enterprises, slows down the investment space in coastal areas, and affects electricity consumption and coal consumption. In the first half of the year, the cumulative generation of clean energy increased 14% year-on-year, accounting for 27% of the total generation of electricity in the whole society, while the cumulative growth of thermal power was only 0.2%. Against the background of macroeconomic pressure dragging down the overall growth of electricity consumption, foreign electricity and new energy power generation have increased dramatically, resulting in a decline in electricity load in coastal areas. It is expected that the growth rate of thermal power generation in some coastal provinces will decrease by more than 10% in summer.