Coal prices fluctuate again in W-shape and will rise in mid-to-late August.

Beginning on August 1, the coal trading price of Bohai Rim Port, which has just risen for less than a week, has fallen again, and is expected to continue to fall this week. At the same time, it also means that coal prices show W-shaped fluctuations again. Why did port coal prices fall in the peak season?

1. Power plant inventory is high.

After the active coal storage in the off-season of coal use in the second quarter, the inventory of power plants is generally at a high level. In July, the power plant is not anxious to make up a large number of coal depots, but actively consume its own inventory. Bohai Rim Port anchor ship has a decreasing trend compared with last year, and more than 90% of them are the customers of pulling long associate coal. There is little coal water in the market and limited delivery. The temporary increase in daily consumption can indeed boost TRADERS'desire to bid, but it can not drive the market coal price to rise continuously.

2. Power consumption in industry is depressed.

Starting in June this year, the peak production of high energy-consuming industries such as cement has been staggered, affecting the amount of coal consumption and indirectly affecting the amount of coal consumption. Beginning on June 5, 135 cement enterprises stopped production at staggered peak for 120 days, reducing coal consumption.

In summer, power generation in power plants mainly relies on civil power. Once rainfall and hydropower increase in the south, coal consumption in power plants will decrease sharply. The desire of coal pulling in power plants will decrease, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand in coal market will occur. Coal prices in ports will naturally face downward pressure. Market downturn.

Hydroelectric power generation, the increase of purchased electricity in coastal areas, the decrease of its own thermal power load, and the delayed daily consumption of power plants to maintain low-level operation. In late July, the daily consumption of power plants has increased to 800,000 tons, but the downstream haulage is still depressed, while the upstream supply has increased, and the storage of coal in ports around the Bohai Sea has increased dramatically, which has helped to eliminate the shortage of high-quality coal. The phenomenon of cargo ships and other cargo around Bohai Sea is rare. Even Huanghua Port, where anchor ships have been keeping high, has dropped to less than 20 ships. The market downturn has prompted the port coal price to turn down again.

In recent years, the rising and falling duration of port coal price is relatively short, and the rising and falling rates are very small. The author predicts that even if coal prices fall again in the port market in August, the decline in coal prices will be very limited and will last for a very short time. It is anticipated that there will not be much room for port coal prices to fall, which is expected to fall by 5-8 CNY/ton, for the following reasons:

1. Coal transportation cost support.

Although the price of coal at the port remained around 590 CNY/ton, and the price of coal at the upstream pithead fell slightly, the price of coal shipment continued to hang upside down. The decline of coal price in port will affect the enthusiasm of traders in shipping to a certain extent, promote their wait-and-see atmosphere and reduce the number of shipments; when the coal supply is reduced to a certain extent, the coal price will stabilize and stop falling when the coal supply and demand balance appears in the market. Coal prices in the port market are still likely to rise in late August.

2. There is still support in summer.

Despite the high inventory level of power plants, they are still in the second half of the peak coal consumption. Thermal weather may occur in the follow-up period to increase the power consumption of power plants. It is estimated that the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants will remain at the level of about 700,000 tons. Some small and medium-sized power plants with less coal storage still have the desire to replenish their stores. It is expected that in mid-late August, the resumption of some power plants'pulling enthusiasm will lead to the stabilization of coal in ports, and a slight increase may occur.