Port coal prices supported by slow inventory decline

The coal price index has been stable for several days. Recently, the index has slightly decreased by 1 CNY/ton. At present, the market focuses on Rizhao coal conference. In the Bohai Sea port, the market coal trading performance is calm. From the perspective of long-term cooperative price in December, the difference between long-term cooperative price and spot price is not large, so it is not significant for the downstream to continue to transport a large number of spot goods. At present, the market is in a wait-and-see state. On the one hand, affected by demand and performance, Changxie coal is still the key point of transportation. On the other hand, both upstream and downstream are paying attention to the signing of Changxie in 2020. Recently, the monthly long-term cooperative price announced by Shenhua fell in December 2019. Among them, the price of outsourcing 5500 kcal coal was 550 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton compared with last month, and the price of outsourcing 5000 kcal coal was 11 CNY/ton to 488 CNY/ton.

The price of Shenhua Changxie is 1 CNY/ton lower than the market coal price. At present, the market coal price has no advantage, in the case of flat demand, it is inevitable that coal price will fall again. Near the end of the year, safety accidents occurred in the early stage, coupled with the upgrading of import restrictions, and the atmosphere of the domestic coal market improved; while the winter heating demand peak season, the daily consumption of power plants increased, and the coal market showed strong psychological support. However, the supply of the upstream main production areas is stable, the railway transportation is accelerated, the storage of ports and power plants is high, the consumption of coal in the downstream is slow, and the enthusiasm of hauling is not high; the coal trade is not active, and the port coal transportation is orderly. After the price of CFA was determined, most traders began to wait and see, market inquiry and procurement decreased, and the pressure of coal price decline increased. In the past week, although the coal consumption of the power plant has increased rapidly, the inventory has not decreased significantly; the number of ships arriving at the northern port and the amount of water entering have not increased significantly, indicating that the imported coal is still entering the port in succession; in addition, the coastal coal transportation is loose, the coal transportation railway and port have increased the shipping capacity, the efficiency of coal transportation has improved, and the inventory of the power plant has been supplemented in a timely manner.

Although the low-temperature snowfall has boosted the consumption of electricity and coal, and the daily consumption of six coastal power plants has risen to 760000 tons, under the condition of high inventory in each link, the unfavorable situation of coal market cannot be reversed at all. In January next year, after the opening of China's import coal, the import coal waiting for customs clearance and unloading swarmed in, and the power plant inventory was quickly replenished; in addition, the Spring Festival was earlier than previous years, and in the middle of January, southern industrial enterprises stopped production one after another for holidays, the industrial power consumption will decline, and the coal market will be weak. Therefore, at present, users are not in a rush to pull coal in large quantities to replenish the warehouse. However, the coal price also has support. In the cold winter, the civil power load increases, the daily consumption of the power plant continues to increase, and the inventory will slow down; in the northern region, the weather is freezing, the frozen cars and coal increase, the port handling efficiency is greatly reduced, the inventory slowly decreases, and the port coal price is supported. It is estimated that the decline of coal price in the port market is limited, with a drop range of 1-3 CNY/ton; in the end of this month, affected by the replenishment of some small and medium-sized power plants, the coal price is likely to rise, with a rise of 1-2 CNY/ton.