The Phenomenon of Power Curtailment and Production Limitation Occurs Frequently, and the Polyester Filament Market Stops Falling

Recently (August 11-23), the domestic polyester filament market stopped falling, of which polyester DTY increased by 1.19%, polyester FDY and polyester POY increased by 0.58% and 0.47% respectively. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are quoted at 7750-8300 CNY/ton for polyester POY (150D/48F), 9000-9550 CNY/ton for polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity), and 9000-9550 CNY/ton for polyester FDY (150D/96F). ) quoted at 8400-8750 CNY/ton.

Under the influence of high temperature, the phenomenon of power curtailment and production curtailment occurred frequently. Beginning in mid-August, most weaving and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang received notices of staggered power curtailment. The operating rate of polyester factories has been on a downward trend with the issuance of the power limit policy. Most of the large factories have maintained a state of production reduction, and the overall operating rate is around 77%.

In terms of cost, affected by the new progress of the Iran nuclear deal and worries about the future economic recession, the price of international crude oil futures fluctuated and weakened recently. As of August 22, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was $90.36 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $96.48 per barrel.

However, the price of PTA rose significantly on the 23rd, and the main futures rose 3.98% to 5,588 yuan. The spot market PTA followed the rise, with the average market price of 6,200 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous trading day and up 24.88% year-on-year. Mainly due to the low start-up load of the current PTA industry as a whole, and at the same time affected by the start of the temperature drop this week, the terminal textile industry is expected to relax the power curtailment policy, so the terminal demand is expected to improve month-on-month. Under the comprehensive boost, the price of PTA ushered in a rebound.

Judging from the current demand terminal, textile and apparel consumption is still in the off-season, and the rigid demand is the mainstay. In addition, due to the high temperature and power curtailment, the terminal weaving load remained low, and the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was reduced to below 48%. The order is still insufficient, and the stocking of raw materials is cautious.

In terms of cost, the fall in demand is expected to still drive the price of crude oil down, the load of the PTA industry has slightly increased to more than 71%, and the supply will also recover slowly. In the terminal textile industry, textile enterprises have an obvious intention to reduce inventory, and they are in a wait-and-see mood for raw material procurement, and it is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. On the whole, the weak situation of both the cost side and the supply and demand side still exists, and the price of polyester filament will still be under pressure.