Total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to increase by 8% in 2020

In 2019, China's economy continued to develop steadily and slowly, with consumption fully playing the role of economic stabilizer, showing the characteristics of differentiation of basic life consumption trend, vigorous development of service consumption, further deceleration of offline retail, and low-level operation of travel consumption. Looking forward to 2020, China's economy will maintain stable operation as a whole. Supported by favorable factors such as overall stability of employment and income situation, deepening influence of Internet development, gradual emergence of consumption promotion policy effect, and acceleration of replenishment of consumption shortage, the consumption demand will have conditions to maintain stable growth. It is preliminarily estimated that the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by about 8.0% in 2020. Consumption is an important driving force for economic growth in 2019. China's economy continues to develop steadily and slowly.

Domestic consumption has given full play to the role of economic stabilizer. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is 60.5%, which is still an important driving force for economic growth. First, consumer spending grew steadily, and the total retail sales of consumer goods fell significantly. Consumer spending grew steadily. Since this year, China's consumer volatility has increased, but the overall growth trend is still good. Second, the trend of food and clothing consumption is divided, and service consumption is booming. The trend of basic living consumption is divided. Food consumption is on the rise. The growth of clothing consumption has obviously weakened. Third, the growth of emerging consumption slowed down slightly, and offline retail slowed down again. Online shopping consumption slowed down slightly. Since this year, the growth rate of online consumption, especially physical online consumption, has slowed down to a certain extent. Fourth, travel consumption is running at a low level, and housing related consumption continues to be cold. At present, employment pressure affects the expectation and income, the crowding out effect of high debt on consumption still exists, the short board of consumption supply cannot meet the new demand, the low homogeneity of service consumption affects the release of consumption intention and other issues are not conducive to the stable growth of the total consumption of the whole society, which need to be paid attention to.

First, employment pressure affects expectations and incomes. Second, the crowding out effect of high debt on consumption still exists. At present, the strict control of the real estate market has not been relaxed, the "real estate is not speculation" has been unswervingly adhered to, and the purchase of houses by residents has become more rational. However, the impact of overdraft purchase on the consumption ability of residents in the previous two years still exists and has not been completely eliminated. Third, the short board of consumer supply can not meet the new demand. At present, China's consumer market is facing three levels of new and old alternation. The alternation of new and old types of consumer goods. The development momentum of traditional big goods such as automobiles is slowing down, and new consumption such as entertainment and education is rising rapidly. The new and old alternation of the main consumers. The rapid growth of the new generation of consumers, such as the post-90s and post-00s, is profoundly affecting the changes in the characteristics of the consumer market. The alternation of new and old consumption areas. The areas with rapid growth are gradually expanding from the first and second tier cities to the third and fourth tier cities and even rural towns.

Fourth, the low-quality homogenization of service consumption affects the release of willingness. The consumption base is relatively stable and looks forward to 2020. China's economy as a whole maintains stable operation. Supported by favorable factors such as the overall stability of employment and income situation, the deepening of the impact of Internet development, the gradual emergence of the effect of consumption promotion policies, and the acceleration of replenishment of the short board of consumption, consumer demand has the conditions to maintain a stable growth. It is preliminarily estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by about 8.0% in 2020. First, the employment and income situation is generally stable, and the consumption base is relatively stable. Although under the influence of external uncertainties, some manufacturing enterprises are in production difficulties and labor demand has declined, but with the support of corresponding policies, the overall employment will remain stable. Second, the impact of Internet development is deepening, and the release of new demand is more supportive. At present, with the rapid development of information technology in China, the impact on the consumer market is deepening. The integration of e-commerce and traditional consumer industries is deepening.

China has reached the world-class level in new consumption formats and new consumption modes. The world's leading consumption modes such as intelligent payment have greatly improved the degree of consumption convenience and promoted the upgrading of China's consumption environment. With the continuous popularization of emerging information technology, the third, fourth line and rural consumer demand will be better stimulated, and the potential of the consumer market will continue to be released. Third, the effect of promoting consumption policy is gradually apparent, and stabilizing consumption is powerful. With the gradual implementation of the consumption promotion policies previously promulgated, the role of the market will gradually appear, which will provide a strong guarantee for the smooth operation of China's consumer market. Fourth, the construction of consumption infrastructure has increased, and the consumption shortage has accelerated. At present, China's rural circulation system construction has made remarkable progress, and the level of consumption infrastructure construction such as transportation and communication has been significantly improved. At the same time, the two-way circulation channels of urban and rural consumption are continuously unblocked. It can be said that the short board of consumption that restricted the release of consumption potential of Chinese residents for a long time is being supplemented.

To promote the smooth operation of the consumer market, in view of the main problems in the current consumption field, we should vigorously promote the employment priority policy, increase the policy of reducing the burden of enterprises, increase the support for key groups, standardize the development of the service industry, and promote the smooth operation of the consumer market. We will vigorously promote the policy of giving priority to employment. We will continue to take stabilizing employment as the primary goal of our work, take the implementation of the employment priority policy as the main line, focus on key points, implement classified policies, and strengthen implementation, and effectively increase the employment of key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and veterans. One is to issue a list of policy services for college graduates and provide them with employment services in stages. Second, we will increase efforts to make good use of the surplus funds of the unemployment insurance fund, support enterprises in need to carry out on-the-job training for their employees, carry out training for the unemployed, strengthen vocational skills training for veterans, and accelerate the promotion of vocational skills. Third, we will effectively encourage and support employment and entrepreneurship, increase the support for the discount and subsidy policies of business guarantee loans, support the construction of entrepreneurship carriers, and expand the scope of employment internship subsidies. Fourth, we need to re-examine the existing policies in the labor market, reduce institutional constraints, and reduce the transaction costs of workers when they change jobs and find jobs.

We will increase policies to reduce the burden on enterprises and stabilize employment expectations. First, we will implement more effective tax reduction and fee reduction measures to guide the society's expectations. It is suggested to speed up the combination of three and two levels of value-added tax rate, expand the scope of value-added tax deduction, and study and issue more measures to reduce the corporate income tax rate generally. The second is to summarize the advanced experience of helping enterprises to cope with the impact of external uncertainties, strengthen the operation monitoring and analysis, and strengthen the service and production stability through the establishment of response to information sharing, enterprise dynamic direct report, department regular consultation and other systems. Third, further efforts should be made to reduce the cost of enterprises and the financing cost of enterprises. We will increase support for key groups of people. We will accelerate the establishment of a cross departmental, multi-level and information sharing mechanism for checking the economic status of families applying for relief, improve the platform for checking the economic status of families, improve the working institutions, effectively integrate the fragmented information in the work of helping people out of danger, and improve the efficiency of helping low-income people.

We will strengthen employment training, appropriately add public welfare job foundations, and focus on the diversion of the work of reducing production capacity Of the elderly workers, migrant workers in the central and western regions and other key groups. Standardize the development of service industry and promote the healthy development of service consumption. First, standardize the management of service quality at different levels, strengthen the construction of quality integrity system, improve the social supervision platform for service quality, especially the certification and recognition system for key areas of life service industry, and improve the commodity inspection system and product quality supervision system involving personal health and property safety. The second is to encourage colleges and secondary vocational schools to add family, elderly care, health and other life related services. Third, set up career promotion channels, and encourage employees to participate in the professional skill appraisal or special professional ability assessment established according to law.