Potassium chloride market prices fell sharply

The latest spot price of international potassium chloride is about 220-230 US dollars / ton to land. According to sea freight and historical experience, it can be inferred that if a large contract is signed now, our CIF price should not exceed 220 US dollars / ton. Although the price of international potassium chloride has been at the low end of the past decade or so, the resistance to further decline is also great, but from the perspective of the overall environment, the current weak situation should continue for a long time. So assuming that the large contract is 220 US dollars / ton, at the exchange rate of 7.1, the rigid cost of port potassium at that time will be about 1880 CNY/ton, compared with the current port price, there is a non-negligible price difference of 300 CNY/ton.

According to statistics, the current stock of conventional ports is only more than 1.3 million tons, which is already very low, but the total amount of goods in bonded warehouses is as high as more than 2.3 million tons. This number is equivalent to the import volume of the entire second quarter of last year, but much higher than the previous The second quarter of these years was basically equivalent to the total imports in the second and third quarters. In other words, there is not only a period of “blank period” just after the signing of a large contract, but also from the shortage of Hong Kong deposits to the excess of Hong Kong deposits in the first line.

Cost, supply and demand are obviously negative prices, so it can be concluded that the signing of a large contract, Potassium chloride will fall. As for the Potassium Sulfate market, the operating rate is gradually recovering, the by-product market is acceptable, and the demand will inevitably shrink in the current environment, so once the price of Potassium Chloride, the main cost, has fallen sharply, it will be difficult for potassium sulfate to be alone.