The cocoa processing industry has been sluggish

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, due to the outbreak of the New Crown epidemic and the closure of global retail stores, the demand for chocolate declined, so the amount of cocoa processing may decline in the first quarter.

The median forecast provided by seven analysts, brokers and processors shows that in Europe, the largest cocoa consumer region, cocoa grinding volume is expected to decline by 3% year-on-year. Valuation falls between 1% and 11%. The North American region is expected to decline by 5.3%, and the six predicted values indicate a median drop of 3% to 7.5%.

Based on four predictions, the amount of cocoa in Asia may fall by 9%. Before the virus outbreak, the Asian cocoa bean grinding industry led the market, with many companies setting up factories in countries such as Malaysia to meet the growing demand for chocolate.

Côte d’ Ivoire, the world ’s largest producer of cocoa beans, and Ghana, the second producer, add a premium of $ 400 per ton to cocoa beans in 2020-21, increasing the cost of processors. New York Stock Exchange futures prices have fallen by 9.9% this year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday that it expects global GDP to shrink by 3% this year. During the peak of the Great Depression, global cocoa grinding volume fell by 6.3% in 2008-09.

Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, believes that retail sales are currently declining, people cannot go out to eat desserts, weddings are cancelled, and people cannot buy chocolates from airport duty-free shops. The slow effect will be more obvious.

The European Cocoa Association plans to release first-quarter data on April 22. Data from the U.S. National Confectioners Association is expected to be released on April 16, while Barry Callebaut, the largest bulk chocolate processor, plans to release quarterly chocolate sales on April 16.