Nylon 66: Farewell to the era of highprofits, the market has downward pressure

Since this year, nylon 66 slice prices allthe way down to August market prices fell below 18,000, thus causing domestictraders and downstream customers to enter the market bottoming out, a wave ofrebound to 25,500-26,000 CNY/ton, into October after the market price againinto the weak market, the market is facing downward pressure is still greater,mainly the following aspects.

Supply increase, demand is not sluggish

This year, whether it is raw materialsadiponitrile or adipamide, or nylon 66 slicing capacity has increased. Inaddition to Huafeng 100,000 tons of new production capacity put into operation,China Chemical's 300,000 tons / year of adiponitrile device has been delayed,the specific time to be determined, INVISTA Shanghai 400,000 tons / year of thedevice is currently news in November out of the product, of course, there isstill uncertainty, Ningxia Ruitai 20,000 tons / year of adipamide device putinto operation in the first half of this year, regardless of whether thesedevices are normal or full production, capacity increases bring The supplyincrease is a fact. Nylon 66 slices, Rui Tai added 40,000 tons, Huafeng 100,000tons, polymer Shun 0.5 million tons, the supply increased.

From the import and export point of view,adiponitrile imports increased significantly compared to the same period lastyear, an increase of about 34,000 tons, the import of adipamide fell by about22,000 tons, so the supply of raw materials compared to last year increasedslightly. And from the import and export of nylon 66 chips, imports fell by43,000 tons, exports fell by about 0.3 million tons, net imports of nylon 66chips fell by about 40,000 tons.

From the point of view of demand, theoverall demand situation in the plastics market this year is general, themarket does not see any bright spot, whether in the automotive or homeappliances, in the textile field, the demand situation is also general.

And nylon 6 slice spread is still large,the future spread has the possibility of contraction

At present, nylon 66 and nylon 6 spread inmore than 10,000 CNY/ton, according to the mean reversion theory, with thesolution of the raw material bottleneck, the spread returned to 5,000 CNY/ton is a normal phenomenon, the future with the expansion of the scale of nylon66, nylon 66 is no longer a scarce product, the spread lower are possible.

Capacity continues to expand, profit goldenperiod has passed

From the announced adiponitrile, nylon 66slicing new project statistics, the future domestic adiponitrile capacity willexceed 4 million tons (assuming that these projects can be put into operation),nylon 66 capacity will exceed 7 million tons, and with the expansion ofproduction capacity, from a product cycle, the golden cycle of profit haspassed, the future must enter the state of profit or even loss, of course, ifthe product can be developed for new uses except Of course, if the product canbe developed for new uses.

Overall, in the current environment,although now nylon 66 has entered the state of Boli, but the market is stillunder pressure, the future market has a good market may be a set of devices notput into operation as scheduled or accidents and other factors brought about bythe short-term market, nylon 66 high profit era will never return.