2023 global commodity market tends to balance

Recently, S&P Global Commodity Insights held an online media briefing on its "Energy Outlook 2023" report. According to the report, 2023 will be the year of rebalancing the global commodity market.

According to the report summary provided by the company, under the background of the impact of the new crown epidemic, the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, the weakening of the macro economy and high inflation, unprecedented uncertainty will appear in the global energy supply in 2022. As the demand for fossil energy continues to grow, energy security issues and policy responses by various countries will continue to be the main risks for the market next year.

The report believes that in 2023, almost all commodity markets will need to undergo a year or more adjustment to bring inventories, supply and demand, and prices into a more sustainable balance.

The report predicts that the growth rate of global oil supply will slow down in 2023. In addition, commodity prices are expected to fall back in 2023 as fundamentals shift toward recalibration, with natural gas, coal, and crude oil prices all below their 2022 averages.

Paul Sheldon, chief geopolitical consultant at S&P Global Commodity Insights, believes that policy uncertainty brought about by Western sanctions against Russian oil exports will be the biggest factor affecting oil supply in 2023.

The report also predicts that the European electricity market may become more tense in 2023, and the structural reform of the electricity market will become an important agenda for European countries next year.

According to the report, the demand for fossil fuels will surge again in 2023, and global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise. Concerns about energy security, economic growth, and geopolitical tensions will complicate and make decisions about energy transitions more difficult.