Oil prices are expected to exceed the $50 mark in 2021

The latest price forecast by IHS Markit shows that the price of Brent crude oil will average US$42.35 per barrel this year and US$49.25 per barrel in 2021. Compared with the forecast in May this year, the price of Brent crude oil will increase by $7 next year.

After the worst demand collapse in April, the oil market is currently "at a delicate turning point and is transitioning to the second phase of the recovery expected by IHS Markit."

In recent weeks, crude oil prices have been relatively stable, and the trading price of Brent crude oil is in a narrow range of US$40-45 per barrel. Roger Dewan, vice president of financial services at IHS Markit, said in a report recently that the price of Brent crude oil "may eventually exceed the $50 per barrel mark in the second half of 2021."

According to statistics from IHS Markit, if the COVID-19 epidemic does not have a second wave that may lead to a large-scale economic shutdown, the price of Brent crude oil will remain at an average of US$40-47 per barrel in the next 4 quarters. Interval.

The consulting firm said that the current market fundamentals are not conducive to the jump in oil prices, because OPEC+ and North American oil-producing countries will bring about 4 million barrels of crude oil production to the market in July and August. At the same time, there are signs that the recovery in oil demand is stalling, and China's record crude oil buying frenzy may be coming to an end.

IHS Markit said: "As long as oil prices remain within the current range, worries about demand may help maintain the process of the (OPEC + agreement. When oil prices exceed $50 per barrel, it may push up U.S. capital expenditures. That is When the tone of the discussion changes, differences of interest may begin to show up."

According to a recent monthly survey of analysts and economists by Reuters, if there is no substantial rebound in global oil demand recovery in the second half of this year, oil prices are unlikely to be much higher than current levels.