Urea is weakening, but diammonium will increase again?

Speaking of the most beautiful young man in the fertilizer market in the first ten days of August, I have to mention urea. The price of urea has been rising all the way with the support of the good printing standard. However, there is no demand for urea in the domestic market at present, and downstream distributors are asking for this price increase. Most of them are in a wait-and-see state, with few new orders being traded. According to a survey conducted by China Fertilizer.com, some factories' quotations have been loosened. Is this a sign of an impending collapse? Once diammonium really collapses, can it rise again?

At present, the mainstream ex-factory price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 2200-2250 yuan (ton price, the same below), the price of 64% diammonium from Southwest China is 2450-2500 yuan, and the price of 57% diammonium is 2200 yuan. The autumn market has started, but the downstream enthusiasm for getting the goods is generally low. The price of the pre-orders that arrives is low. The wholesale price of distributors basically fluctuates around the current factory quotation. Even so, some factories still indicate that they will raise their quotations again at the end of the month. What is the market? Let Diammonium be so confident, is Diammonium really ready?

First of all, there are more waiting to be launched and the supply of saleable goods is tight. The autumn wheat fertilizer market is the main battlefield of diammonium. At present, some companies have pending orders until mid-September, and they have begun to control orders. The start of the autumn market surprised almost everyone in the industry. So where did diammonium come from so many pending orders? On the one hand, due to the low price of raw materials, the price of diammonium has been at a low level after the end of the spring market. In July, some downstream distributors began to buy fertilizers from the bottom; on the other hand, because of the impact of the epidemic, India The decline in domestic diammonium production in other places has increased the demand for Chinese sources. Therefore, since last month, the number of pending orders for diammonium enterprises in China has remained high. Control of orders has occurred from time to time, and the sales pressure of enterprises has almost reached The lowest level in recent years.

Second, export prices continue to rise. Urea is because the Indian bidding has supported the previous increase of about 100 yuan per ton. Although diammonium is not as crazy as urea, the export market has also become one of the main supporting factors for price increases. Different from the situation in previous years that were forced to collect ports for export in order to alleviate the pressure of domestic supply, the current FOB price of around US$323 has been converted to some companies’ ex-factory prices which have been basically the same as the previous domestic prices, and some companies’ export pending orders have been scheduled. Until September, both price and quantity are widely optimistic in the later period.

Finally, demand is booming in the fall. The wheat fertilizer market is dominated by diammonium and compound fertilizers. At present, downstream distributors have begun to stock up, and the market trading atmosphere has gradually improved. The low-priced diammonium received in the early stage was gradually digested, and the prices of the later sources continued to rise. Coupled with the willingness of the factory to increase prices due to more pending shipments, the price of diammonium still has room to rise.

In summary, the rising urea bubble is about to burst, but due to the support of domestic and foreign demand, it can be expected that there will still be a slight upward exploration space in the later period.