Demand is not optimistic, PTA is difficult to rebound sharply

Recently, the price of PTA has rebounded somewhat. However, from the analysis of demand performance and production capacity and expansion expectations, it is difficult for the supply and demand of PTA to improve significantly. At the same time, the transaction situation in the options market also shows that the mainstream view of the market is still dominated by oscillations.

　　 Grey cloth sales are tepid

　　In terms of products, the current efficiency of staple fiber and bottle flakes and the order situation are acceptable, the load is stable, and the marginal change of polyester load is mainly affected by filament. Although the polyester filament factory is currently in a disadvantageous situation of loss and high inventory of finished products, due to the historical low price of raw materials and the consideration of maintaining share, the filament load has not fallen sharply after April, and from the perspective of later forecasts, good Bao, Hengli and other devices still have plans to restart, when the total load of polyester will increase by 1% to 92%, this is also one of the bullish factors supporting PTA prices in the near future.

From the previous years, starting from mid-to-late August, the grey cloth industry has ushered in the peak consumption season, the transaction volume has increased, and the product inventory has also entered a digestion period. However, as of September 2 this year, the grey cloth transaction is still tepid, maintaining the off-season level. Product inventory continues to remain high, indicating that actual demand is still poor.

　　PTA overhaul is still expected

　　 In August, Taihua, Yangzi, Sanfangxiang, Reignwood and other PTA devices took turns overhauling, and the final monthly output of PTA decreased slightly by 100,000 tons, which was lower than expected. In September, some PTA installations are still expected to be overhauled. In addition to Reignwood, Sanfangxiang and other installations that are still falling load, Yisheng (Ningbo), Fuhai Chuang, Energy Investment, and Hanbang also have maintenance forecasts. If they can all be implemented , PTA production is expected to continue to shrink by 100,000 tons, combined with polyester production analysis, PTA may destock 50,000-100,000 tons.

　　 However, Dongying Petrochemical's 1 million tons of PX capacity and Dushan Energy's second phase of 2.2 million tons of PTA capacity are also approaching. The current device changes are somewhat similar to last year. In the fourth quarter of last year, PTA also had a lot of device overhauls. In the fourth quarter, PTA social inventory was depleted from 250,000 to 300,000 tons, but the price of PX and PTA, and the difference in PTA processing Due to the landing of Hainan Refinery and Dushan Energy Phase I, the market may be more concerned about the long-term profit compression logic than short-term destocking.

It is true that the current price difference between PX and PTA is only around US$130/ton, which is much lower than last year’s US$250/ton. At the same time, the room for PTA processing difference compression is also limited. However, the scale of production of the new device is comparable. With Sinochem Quanzhou’s 800,000 tons of PX capacity, Baihong’s 2.5 million tons of PTA capacity, and CICC’s 3 million tons of PTA capacity expected to be launched, market sentiment is more cautious.

　　In the rebound, buying IV expands

　　 Since the listing of PTA options, there have been far more subscription positions than put positions. At the end of July, the position distribution of the 2101 contract also showed this characteristic. The same is true in the process of the PTA price rebound. 3850 shallow virtual purchases, 4000 middle virtual purchases, and 5000 deep virtual purchases all have 400-1000 lots of Masukura, while 3400 and 3500 shallow virtual purchases have Masukura. , But only 200-500 hands.

In addition, the Put IV rose with the rebound in the PTA price, and the increase of the subscription IV was significantly weaker than that of the put, indicating that the subscribed seller and the put buyer had stronger power. Based on this, it is speculated that the market may be more concentrated in the PTA collar and cover strategy On the premise of preventing downside risks, earn a meager time value. The market view is still biased towards the bearish side.