TDI market gradually diverges, or bottoms out for the second time

TDI's trading faults have been very obvious in the past three months. According to Zhuo Chuang's tracking, there were concentrated transactions only in early September, mid-October, and mid-November, and the spot market transaction volume in other periods was low. However, prices have experienced weakness, consolidation at high levels, and accelerated declines, and are currently facing a second bottoming.

During the weekend, the market broke out new news. It is reported that a TDI factory in Shanghai failed during the restart of equipment on Friday and could not restart operation as planned, and the source described the situation as serious.

The plant's 160,000-ton/year TDI device was shut down unexpectedly in the middle of the day, which was an unplanned shutdown. It was previously reported that it would last for 3 weeks.

Due to the previous unplanned shutdown, it is reported that the factory's current low inventory supply is tight. Zhuochuang expects that the factory will eliminate the fault as soon as possible to restart and ensure supply. However, the specific progress still has great uncertainty and unpredictability. It is recommended that all parties maintain Closely.

It is not yet possible to determine the clear impact and duration of the incident. However, according to the source’s description of its “serious” and the fact that the factory has low inventory due to the previous accidental shutdown, it is expected that the supply situation in the short term will be worrying. For users and distributors, there is a risk of reduced supply. The perspective is placed in the industry. The current inventory situation of TDI factories is quite different. It is expected that those with high inventory will follow the market trend under the premise of practicing the shipping idea, while those with low inventory may moderately shrink supply and balance demand.

In the previous three months, the demand side did not actively purchase most of the time, and only a small amount of replenishment was made at 2-3 nodes, and most of the previous inventory was mainly consumed. After nearly three months of consumption, the current raw material inventory of most users There has been a substantial reduction.

According to Zhuochuang's sample survey, in addition to the monthly contract volume for most large and medium-sized users, the reserve TDI has dropped from the most abundant 12-16 week level to 3-6 weeks. The huge reserves of small and micro users in the first half of the year have been reduced significantly after long-term consumption. The TDI stock of some sampled users has dropped from the most abundant 5-8 months to 5-9 weeks.

In the process of price decline, the client's willingness to replenish the inventory gradually increased. After Zhuochuang communicated with the client and tracked the market, some users began to purchase plans when the price was close to 12,000 CNY/ton, but the psychological price of large and medium-sized users to buy bulk goods Lower.

Before the Spring Festival, the client will inevitably have one or more rounds of purchase and reserve, which will be carried out according to market changes. Most users say that if the price continues to drop, they will stock up on the market according to the plan. If the market goes up unexpectedly, most users may return to consuming inventory and relying on contracts. Form, temporarily abandoning large stocks.

On the market, after the heavy and rebounded trading volume on the 13th of the month, TDI failed to continue to rebound to achieve a reversal. Instead, it entered a negative decline and lost volume again, falling back to the previous low point. At the end of the month, the domestic spot price in East China was 12200- 12,300 CNY/ton occupies the mainstream, basically the same as the low point in the middle.

After entering November, the TDI market has less positive news. In addition to Covestro's planned overhaul of the equipment, Shanghai BASF unexpectedly shut down in the middle of the year. The supply of the above-mentioned factories has shrunk accordingly, and the price side also has strong willingness and expression. Other factories reacted differently to this, and some of them responded. In the large-volume order on the 13th, they carried out a controlled-volume cut-off operation, and the subsequent settlement price was considered high by most people in the market. There are also some factories that did not actively respond to this news, but chose to flatten and open the supply, and some factories actively carried out a price close to the market price.

The aforementioned different operations between factories failed to form a consistent force. In the trade market, the positions of mainstream first-hand trading in November are quite different. Most mainstream merchants hold high-cost and multiple orders, and are under tremendous pressure during the downward trend. Only a few are in a low-pressure state. Therefore, in the context of the failure of factories to advance together, the trade market is also difficult to form a synergy. In November, the factory and mainstream first-hand vendors almost lost their initiative, and the market was led by the second-hand market, and the non-purchasing of the users aggravated the continued price. Down.

In November, TDI East China domestically produced goods was 14800 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month and 12250 CNY/ton at the end of the month, down 2250 CNY/ton, or 17.3%.

As the price once again entered less than 12,500 CNY/ton, market sentiment gradually began to differentiate. First of all, the bulls have a general tendency. After the price is less than 12,000 CNY/ton, the willingness to ship is very small, and the willingness to enter the warehouse increases. Most of them say that if the price continues to drop, they will gradually purchase and enter the idea of opening a warehouse. Short positions have also converged cautiously. At the beginning of late November, some futures in January of the following year had a discount of 1,000 yuan, and showed a positive willingness to supply. As the spot market entered below 12,500 CNY/ton, short positions also contracted supply accordingly, and Appropriately tighten the water operation. From the user perspective, although the high price of polyether in the early stage severely restricted users from entering the raw material market, the return of TDI to less than 12,500 CNY/ton still aroused the attention of users, and the inquiries about when to buy the bottom increased significantly.

Previously, Zhuo Chuang believed that after TDI entered 12,500 CNY/ton, the decline would effectively slow down and the downside could only be more than 1,000 yuan. However, in the context of weekend emergencies, the risk of subsequent deep decline in TDI was greatly reduced, and even hoped to help The market has bottomed out and stabilized. If other positive news or the positive attitude of the factory is supported, the rebound is expected to come true. In addition, the medium and long-term market still needs to be cautiously predicted based on the comprehensive output of the industry, the willingness of most manufacturers to supply, and the activity of market procurement.