2021 Methanol Market Development Report

Methanol is a colorless, flammable, and volatile toxic liquid. It is non-corrosive to most metals at room temperature and has a slight alcohol odor. Methanol has a wide range of uses and is a basic organic chemical raw material and high-quality fuel.

Analysis of World Methanol Trade

World methanol production has maintained a relatively stable growth rate. In 2020, the world's methanol production capacity will reach 127 million tons/year, the output will be 80.016 million tons, the average operating rate is 63.0%, and the demand will be 79.941 million tons. The capacity expansion is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, the Middle East and North America. Northeast Asia is the world's largest methanol producer and the largest methanol consumer. In recent years, the large-scale construction of coal/methanol-to-olefin plants in Northeast Asia has greatly changed the world methanol market structure. Northeast Asia has become the absolute leader in world methanol. Nearly half of the world trade volume is concentrated in this region. The center is also shifting from Western Europe to Northeast Asia.

In 2019, the total international trade volume of methanol reached 9.33 billion U.S. dollars, and the total trade volume was 17.615 million tons. By country, the world's methanol imports in 2019 are mainly from China, the United States, the Netherlands and other countries and regions. The world's methanol exports mainly come from countries or regions such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, and the Netherlands.

The world's methanol production capacity continues to grow. Future capacity release will be concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America and South America. It is estimated that in 2022, the world's methanol production capacity will increase to 139 million tons per year. The downstream demand structure has not changed much, and the methanol consumption of acetic acid has increased slightly.

Status Quo and Forecast of China's Methanol Supply and Demand

China's methanol production capacity reached 92.36 million tons/year, and its supply reached 67.123 million tons. In 2020, China will put into operation a total of 4.24 million tons of methanol equipment per year, and most of the new equipment will be put into production on demand, which to a certain extent alleviates the contradiction between supply and demand in China's current main production areas and main consumption areas.

China's apparent methanol consumption in 2020 will reach 80.011 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 83.9%. China's apparent methanol consumption has grown rapidly in recent years. The import volume of methanol in 2020 will be 13.009 million tons, and the import value will be US$2.7786.6 million. The export volume of methanol is 121,000 tons. In terms of trade mode, China's methanol import trade mode in 2020 is mainly general trade, with a trade volume of 10.765 million tons, accounting for 82.7%. In 2020, China's methanol imports will mainly come from the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and New Zealand. The cost of methanol in the Middle East still has certain advantages over domestic ones, and due to the epidemic, these countries will increase their exports to China in the second half of the year.

The downstream applications of methanol in China mainly include formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, methanol gasoline, methanol to olefins, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and methyl chloride. Among them, methanol-to-olefins accounted for more than 40% of the total methanol consumption, becoming the largest consumption area of methanol downstream.

China's methanol production enterprises are gradually developing towards grouping and large-scale development, and small and backward production capacity are gradually eliminated. With the gradual launch of new downstream projects such as olefins, MTBE, and hydrogen production, the integration of upstream and downstream and cooperation between enterprises will be the main development directions. China's methanol still has many new projects planned/under construction. It is initially expected to add 5.2 million tons of new production capacity per year in 2021, and the growth rate of new production capacity will slow down in 2022.