This Week, the Coke Market in China Remains Stable

January 16th, News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system: On January 16, 2025, the average price was 1,391 CNY per ton. Currently, coke enterprises are mainly operating weakly, with high inventory levels. The overall market supply is sufficient, and steel mill profits have limited recovery.

II. Market Analysis

Price-wise: On January 16, the metallurgical coke prices in Handan market remained stable. The current price for dry quenched quasi-first grade is between 1495-1525 CNY/ton, and for wet quenched quasi-first grade, it is 1340 CNY/ton, both factory price, cash including tax. In the Jinzhong market on January 16, the metallurgical coke prices also remained stable. The current price for wet quenched quasi-first grade metallurgical coke is between 1260-1280 CNY/ton, for dry quenched quasi-first grade metallurgical coke it is between 1525-1550 CNY/ton, and for first grade dry quenched metallurgical coke, it is between 1525-1675 CNY/ton, all factory price, cash including tax. In the Tangshan market on January 16, the metallurgical coke prices were stable as well. The current mainstream transaction price for rammed first grade dry quenched is 1680 CNY/ton, and for top-loaded first grade dry quenched, it is 1750 CNY/ton, both factory price, cash including tax.

Demand Side: Seasonal Weakness: As the year draws to a close, steel demand is showing a clear seasonal weakening trend. Blast furnace molten iron production continues to decline, and the rigid demand for coke is noticeably weaker. The supply-demand balance is shifting toward a looser situation: with supply increasing and demand decreasing, the supply-demand balance for coke is becoming more relaxed, putting continued downward pressure on prices.

Supply Side: Coking coal prices: Raw material coking coal may maintain a tight balance, with high levels expected in the second and fourth quarters. The cost pressure on the coke end remains, and profit margins: Coking profits are expected to remain in a loss state. The production intentions of coking enterprises are not optimistic, and operating rates are expected to remain at moderate levels.

III. Future Market Forecast

Coke analysts believe that in the short term, coke prices will operate in a narrow and weak range, with insufficient momentum for price increases.