Methanol Market Trend Fluctuates and Consolidates

January 16 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from January 12 to January 16 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market fell from 2,253 CNY/ton to around 2,220 CNY/ton. The price decreased by 0.55% during the period, increased by 6.03% month-over-month, and decreased by 17.31% year-over-year. The Chinese methanol market is experiencing a fluctuating consolidation, with a significant decrease in port methanol inventory. However, the current inventory remains high, and due to poor downstream profits and weak demand, the market continues to be sluggish under the pressure of high inventory and weak downstream demand.

As of the close on January 16, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange for January 16, 2026, declined. The main methanol futures contract, 2605, opened at 2,261 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2,270 CNY/ton, and hit a low of 2,228 CNY/ton. It closed at 2,239 CNY/ton in the late session, down 45 yuan from the previous trading day’s settlement price, representing a price decrease of 1.97%. Trading volume totaled 1,176,840 contracts, with open interest standing at 824,058 contracts, and daily increase in open interest amounting to -5,318 contracts.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of January 16, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Side: Coal demand remains limited, and prices are generally stable, providing moderate support to methanol costs. The impact on methanol costs is mixed, with both positive and negative factors at play.

Comparison Chart of Coal/Bituminous Coal (Upstream Raw Material) and Methanol Price Trends:

Demand Side: Port-based olefin demand has declined, leading to a reduction in inventory levels. However, apparent demand remains weak, directly putting downward pressure on prices. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and methanol demand is weighed down by bearish factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply side, plant maintenance at Xinxiang Zhongxin; production cuts at Xinjiang Tianye and Zhongyuan Dahan; resumption of operations at Inner Mongolia Jiuding, Henan Shouchuang, and Shanxi Lubao. Overall, the volume of lost production exceeds the volume of resumed production, leading to a decrease in output and a decline in the capacity utilization rate. Favorable factors are influencing the methanol supply side.

On the international markets, as of the close on January 15, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 321.5–322.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5–89.5 cents per gallon; the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 261.5–262.5 per ton, up EUR 2 per ton.

Looking ahead, given the continued high operating rates in the methanol industry and ample supply across regions, competition is intensifying. Downstream demand remains at elevated inventory levels, prompting rational purchasing behavior for new orders, while the supply side is accelerating its pace of shipments. Methanol analysts forecast that China’s spot methanol market is likely to experience volatile downward trends.