MTBE Market Trends Show Signs of Slowing Down

October 24th, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from October 20 to 24, the MTBE price first fell and then rose from 4,912 CNY/ton to 4,930 CNY/ton. The price increased by 0.36% within the period, decreased by 2.95% month-on-month, and fell by 10.57% year-on-year. The Chinese MTBE market was weakly adjusted, with poor performance of international crude oil. Additionally, some previously shut-down manufacturers gradually resumed operations, leading to an increase in resource supply. Meanwhile, the terminal demand for gasoline was weak, and manufacturers offered discounts to promote sales. After the price dropped to a low point, it stimulated the purchasing enthusiasm of traders, and the transaction atmosphere began to improve.

MTBE China production price average trend chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices have risen, driven primarily by several positive factors: the U.S. has intensified sanctions against Russia, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains deadlocked with signs of further escalation. Additionally, easing concerns over trade disputes, coupled with a decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, have all provided support to oil prices. As of October 23, the settlement price for the December Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $65.99 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, weak crude oil prices are weighing on the oil market, intensifying bearish sentiment. Refineries are increasingly lowering their pricing, leading to subdued trading activity in the market. Meanwhile, demand for MTBE remains under pressure from predominantly negative factors.

Supply side: Yuhuang Shengrong, Shandong Chengtai, and Dongfang Hongye plants are in operation, while Hebei XinXinYuan is undergoing plant maintenance, leading to an increase in the facility utilization rate.

As of October 24, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production companies:

As of the close on October 23, the Asian MTBE market recorded a price increase of $22.92 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore settling at $657.03–$659.03 per ton. Meanwhile, the European MTBE market saw its closing price rise by $27.75 per ton from the prior session, trading at FOB ARA levels of $890.99–$891.49 per ton. In the U.S., the MTBE market closed higher by $21.92 per ton from the previous day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices reaching $858.45–$858.81 per ton (equivalent to 242.39–242.49 cents per gallon).

Future Market Prediction Currently, resource supply is relatively abundant, while the boost from gasoline demand is insufficient. MTBE analysts believe that the Chinese MTBE market will mainly remain in a stalemate and consolidation phase.