MTBE Market Trends Fluctuate and Consolidate

February 6 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from February 2 to 6, the price of MTBE first fell and then rose from 4,883 CNY/ton to 4,903 CNY/ton. During the period, the price increased by 0.41%, up 1.03% month-on-month, and down 18.55% year-on-year. The Chinese MTBE market initially declined and then rebounded, with a fluctuating price trend. After reaching a high point in the early part of the week, the price faced resistance from downstream buyers, and the crude oil market was also performing poorly, leading to a correction in the MTBE market. After falling to a certain low point, international crude oil prices rose again, and with some restocking demand from terminal operators before the holiday, manufacturers were supported to push up their quotations again.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international oil prices have experienced sharp fluctuations—first falling and then rising. The primary factors driving these movements are: at the beginning of the week, the U.S. and Iran maintained dialogue and exploration of negotiation options, signaling a potential easing of tensions; coupled with the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, oil prices came under downward pressure and fell. However, in the past two days, disagreements have emerged over certain details of the U.S.-Iran talks, prompting market concerns that the breakdown of negotiations could exacerbate geopolitical risks, thereby providing support for oil prices and causing them to rise sharply. As of February 4, the settlement price for the April Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $67.55 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, international crude oil futures initially declined and then rebounded. The refined oil market followed this trend, falling first before staging a recovery. Refineries closely aligned their pricing adjustments with those of crude oil. However, at this stage, terminal demand has been only moderately satisfactory. Traders in the intermediate links have been cautious in locking in prices and placing orders, while downstream users have maintained medium-to-high inventory levels and are proceeding with procurement and sales cautiously. As a result, most transactions in the market have been small-scale orders. The demand side for MTBE is being influenced by relatively favorable factors.

Supply side: There may be a shutdown plan for the Helci facility in Henan, and it is expected that resource supply may slightly decrease. The MTBE supply side is influenced by positive factors.

As of February 6, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:

As of the close on February 5, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up $2.5 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $657.08 to $659.08 per ton. In the European MTBE market, prices closed $2.25 per ton higher than the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $759.24 to $759.74 per ton. In the U.S. MTBE market, prices closed $1.98 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $708.89 to $709.24 per ton (200.16 to 200.26 cents per gallon).

Market Forecast: International oil prices still have room to rise, and with expectations of a new round of increases in retail price caps for refined oil products—as well as the anticipated rise in travel demand during the Spring Festival travel rush—gasoline prices are likely to remain relatively strong. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market has the potential to move higher.