Supply and Demand Continue to Reduce Inventories, PTA Prices Fluctuate Higher

November 20th, according to reports

According to the commodity market analysis system, since November, the PTA market in China has shown an upward trend with fluctuations. As of November 20th, the spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4,656 CNY per ton, an increase of 2.48% from the beginning of the month. This is due to the relaxation of certification by India's BIS and the early maintenance of some PTA facilities, which improved the supply structure at the upper end and is expected to boost export growth. However, the market lacks new drivers, so the overall price increase is not significant.

Looking ahead, amid the broader trend of oversupply in the crude oil market, oil prices are naturally poised for downward pressure. However, ongoing geopolitical factors continue to introduce uncertainty into the market, partially offsetting the downside risks associated with the supply glut. As a result, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, oscillating within a range as they continue to face high levels of volatility in the short term.

As of November 19, the settlement price for the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $59.44 per barrel, while the January Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $63.51 per barrel.

On the PTA supply side, Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million-ton facility has been shut down as planned, while Xinjiang Zhongtai’s 1.2 million-ton unit has increased its load to 70%. Meanwhile, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million-ton plant was idled on November 20. China’s industry operating rate remains around 71%. In the short term, PTA processing margins remain low, and inventories continue to stay at historically tight levels.

India's BIS certification has been revoked, leading to a noticeable improvement in downstream polyester filament inquiries. Meanwhile, with polyester plants restarting operations and new capacity slated for release, PTA demand is beginning to recover. In the short term, bolstered by rising costs and expectations of increased polyester exports from India, polyester prices are expected to remain supported.

Analysts believe that within the month, there are still planned maintenance schedules for PTA facilities in China. Downstream polyester demand remains stable, and the supply and demand of PTA continue to reduce inventory, maintaining a relatively strong price trend. However, as demand seasonally declines and terminal loads slowly decrease, the upward momentum of PTA prices is hindered.