MTBE Market Trend Weakly Consolidates

November 21, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 17 to 21, the price of MTBE fell from 4950 CNY/ton to 4935 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 0.30% during the period, an increase of 1.49% month-over-month, and a decrease of 9.41% year-over-year. In the early stage, the price slightly declined as manufacturers offered discounts to promote sales. As the price gradually bottomed out, it attracted more buying interest, and the trading atmosphere improved. Subsequently, manufacturers took the opportunity to raise their quotes, but due to the volatile international crude oil market, market sentiment became cautious, limiting the upward potential of the MTBE market. In the latter part of the week, the market mainly saw a weak downward adjustment.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices have risen, driven primarily by the following positive factors: ongoing U.S. sanctions against certain oil-producing countries continue to weigh on market sentiment; the end of the U.S. government shutdown has boosted market confidence; and the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, keeping underlying supply risks firmly in play. As of November 20, the settlement price for the February Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $62.80 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, international crude oil prices have been fluctuating, while refined oil markets are showing weak downward trends. Refineries have slightly adjusted their pricing downward to encourage downstream buyers to step in at lower levels. Meanwhile, traders in the intermediate stages remain cautious about placing new orders, and end-users are purchasing only as needed. As a result, most transactions in the market are being conducted in small volumes. Additionally, demand for MTBE is being weighed down by bearish factors.

Supply side: After the shutdown of the new material facility in China, production was affected, leading to a small decline in the facility utilization rate. The MTBE supply side is influenced by positive factors.

As of November 21, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production companies:

As of the close on November 20, the Asian MTBE market closed at $13.35 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $642.27 to $644.27 per ton. Meanwhile, the European MTBE market ended $19.5 per ton lower than the prior session, quoted at FOB ARA levels between $804.49 and $804.99 per ton. In contrast, the U.S. MTBE market saw its closing price rise by $39.77 per ton compared to the previous day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices settling at $831.71 to $832.07 per ton (equivalent to 234.84–234.94 cents per gallon).

Market Forecast: Raw material prices are likely to remain range-bound at high levels, with cost support still in place. Meanwhile, some major manufacturers continue to prioritize export deliveries, resulting in limited domestic supply releases and providing the market with a degree of bottom-level support. An MTBE analyst believes there is potential for the Chinese MTBE market to rebound.