August 20th, News
Today, the butadiene market in China continues to show an upward trend, with a strong futures market supporting market sentiment. Downstream buyers are restocking in a concentrated manner, and traders are holding back from selling, with multiple positive factors driving the market, creating a strong bullish sentiment. The tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, and there is still room for slight price increases. The average difference indicator shows a clear upward signal, with prices at a mid-level over a 1-year period and at a high level over a 60-day period, so it is necessary to be cautious of the upward pressure from the high levels.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-19) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-18) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 353.33 | 270.00 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 378.00 | 371.33 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 474.33 | 406.00 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
Three differences are all positive compared to the previous day, indicating a clear upward signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is clearly upward. Reasons: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences have all shown positive growth compared to yesterday, and their directions are completely consistent, meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend according to the moving average difference method. At the same time, the futures market is supported by the spot market, downstream buyers are restocking in a concentrated manner, and traders are holding back from selling, leading to a tight supply situation that is unlikely to ease in the short term. Multiple fundamental factors further support the upward trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1 year cycle price position: median, with some room for adjustment and fluctuation in the medium to long term.
60-day cycle price position: high, short-term upside needs to be cautious of high-level pressure
Price positioning within the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-high levels; the phased upward trend may be influenced by marginal changes in supply and demand.
5. Trend Chart Display
VI. Supplementary Market Updates
China spot: On August 19, Sinopec executed at 11,650 CNY/ton in East China, North China, and Central China, and at 11,550 CNY/ton in South China, an increase of 750 CNY/ton from the East China price on August 18; downstream buyers were restocking, traders were holding back from selling, and the trading atmosphere was active.
International Market: On August 18, European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 1,060–1,068 per ton, while FD Northwest Europe closed at EUR 1,085–1,093 per ton. In the Asian market, South Korea FOB was quoted at USD 1,415–1,423 per ton, and China CFR at USD 1,475–1,483 per ton. International market prices remained stable, providing some support to the Chinese market.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
