In November, the caustic soda price generally declined in China

November 28th, news

I. Price Trends

According to monitoring data, the price of caustic soda in November showed a continuous downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 838 CNY/ton, and by the end of the month, the price in Shandong region was 780 CNY/ton, a decrease of 6.92%, and a drop of 23.6% compared to the same period last year. On November 27, the chemical index was 765 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.36% from the highest point of 1400 points (October 23, 2021), and up 27.93% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

II. Market Analysis

According to the survey data, the caustic soda prices in November have been showing a downward trend. In Shandong region, the mainstream market price for 32% ion membrane caustic soda is around 710-810 CNY/ton. In Jiangsu region, the caustic soda prices are stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion membrane caustic soda being around 840-930 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia region, the caustic soda prices are consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) being around 2250-2350 CNY/ton. At the beginning of the month, the supply of caustic soda was loose, and production was at a high level, but the demand from downstream was average, leading to a decline in caustic soda prices. By the end of the month, the supply remained ample, and the recent market entry enthusiasm of downstream alumina was average, with the market still in a stalemate state, and caustic soda was mostly purchased on an as-needed basis. It is expected that the alumina market will show a weak and volatile trend in the later period. Additionally, the data shows that China's cumulative export volume of caustic soda from January to October 2025 was 2,944,386.820 tons, up 41.93% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 338.803 tons, down 94.57% year-on-year.

Analysts believe that in recent times, the caustic soda prices in November have been relatively weak. Recently, many downstream sectors in China have been purchasing according to their needs. The overall supply and demand dynamics suggest that caustic soda prices will likely remain stable in the coming period, depending on the specific demand from the downstream market.