Cost Relaxation, Butylenes Market in Downward Trend

March 17th, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of March 17, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China, is 7,766 CNY per ton. Compared to March 11, 2026 (when the reference price for n-butanol was 8,833 CNY per ton), the price has decreased by 967 yuan, a decrease of 12.08%.

Mid-March saw a decline in the butanol market in Shandong, China.

From the commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that in mid-March (March 11-17), the market trend of n-butanol in Shandong, China, showed a one-sided decline, with a significant drop in the price level. The maximum single-day decrease exceeded 500 CNY/ton. On March 17, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to around 7,500-8,000 CNY/ton.

Analysis of Core Impact Factors

Macro Outlook: In early March, influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global crude oil prices surged, causing a rapid increase in the costs of basic chemical products. As a result, the market price of n-butanol rose steadily. However, as geopolitical tensions eased, international oil prices began to fluctuate and decline, easing overall market sentiment regarding “supply disruptions” and prompting a general downward adjustment in the chemical market.

Cost Perspective: Recently, the market price of propylene—the raw material for n-butanol—has been fluctuating and declining, providing loose cost support for n-butanol. Consequently, n-butanol prices have followed the downward trend of its raw materials.

Demand Side: Currently, the downstream market for n-butanol is characterized by a strong wait-and-see attitude. Buyers with genuine needs are taking advantage of lower prices to make purchases, but overall market inquiries and transactions remain sluggish. Production plants are proactively lowering their factory prices and actively pushing for shipments.

Export Side: Geopolitical situations overseas remain complex and volatile, and trade risks in some regions have risen, thereby limiting export orders.

Future Market Forecast

From the current perspective, in the short term, there is still downward pressure on the n-butanol market prices in Shandong region. It is necessary to pay more attention to the recovery of the downstream market's operating rates, the price trend of propylene as a raw material, and whether new disruptions arise from geopolitical situations. If the downstream rigid demand does not start for a long time, or if the expectation of geopolitical easing continues, prices may continue to bottom out; if a sudden geopolitical risk pushes up oil prices, the market situation may rebound.