This week, the caustic soda price was weak (4.13-4.17) in China

April 17 news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices showed a weak trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 738 CNY/ton, and by the end of the week, it had dropped to 724 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.9%, and a year-on-year decline of 10.51% compared to last year. On April 16, the chlorine-alkali index was 761 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.24% from the highest point of 2128 points (October 24, 2021), and up 7.64% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27, 2026. (Note: The period refers to December 1, 2011, to the present.)

II. Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices were weak this week. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda is around 650-760 CNY/ton. In Zhejiang, the caustic soda prices remained stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan around 1000-1050 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices were steady, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda (on a 100% basis) around 2200-2300 CNY/ton. This week, the operating rate of caustic soda production increased after the holiday, but inventory clearance was not significant, leading to an inventory accumulation trend. Downstream buyers were cautious, and the pace of sales from enterprises slowed down. The purchasing enthusiasm for liquid caustic soda from alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan was noticeably weaker. Currently, the prices in the surrounding markets, represented by Shandong liquid caustic soda, continued to weaken. There was no significant improvement in the alumina sector, and the current producers are in a wait-and-see mode, with few spot transactions in the market, and they are being cautious about purchasing caustic soda.

Analysts believe that the caustic soda prices have been relatively weak recently, this week. Recently, downstream sectors in China have mostly been purchasing according to their needs, and there has been no substantial improvement in demand. Caustic soda producers still face significant inventory pressure, and there is resistance from downstream sectors. The overall supply and demand dynamics suggest that caustic soda prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on the specific market demand from downstream sectors.

Technical analysis

From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that the future trend of caustic soda can be analyzed from two dimensions:

When the 10-day moving average is about to cross below the 20-day moving average, the probability of a decline is higher, indicating that the caustic soda market in China is in a downward phase.

2. Current position: Considering the five-day and ten-day moving averages, both the 10-day and 20-day positions for caustic soda are currently at low levels, indicating a relatively high probability of further decline.