September 11th News
This diesel market analysis is based on the latest spot data as of September 10, 2026. The current diesel price is at a high level within the past year. The average difference indicator shows a (+, -, +) combination, which corresponds to a bearish signal for a potential stagnation and decline. The price is currently in a fluctuation range, with limited upside potential, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a price drop from the high level.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026.09.10 | Value on 2026.09.09 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 191.26 | 50.17 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 58.98 | 62.59 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 292.06 | 280.17 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current combination of changes in the three consecutive differences, compared to the previous day, is (+,-,+), corresponding to a stagnation warning (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating. Reason: The changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, indicating an oscillating range. Bearish signals suggest insufficient momentum for price increases, and there is a possibility of a stall and pullback.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The current diesel price is in the highest 20% range for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods, corresponding to the 5th tier (high position) out of 5 tiers, with limited room for further increases.
V. One-Year Price Trend of Diesel Oil
VI. Fundamental Reference
Recently, international crude oil prices have continued to rise. On September 9, the settlement price of the October contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $96.05 per barrel, representing a price increase of 3.2%. The settlement price of the November contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $101.21 per barrel, with a price increase of 3.4%, indicating strong cost-side support. On September 10, diesel quotes from independent refineries in Northeast and Northwest China ranged between 8,500 and 8,700 CNY per ton, and spot prices remained relatively strong.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
