September 11th, it was reported that
According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 4 to 11 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market rose continuously from 3,355 CNY/ton to around 3,716 CNY/ton. The price increased significantly by 10.75% during the period, up 39.72% month-over-month, and up 62.30% year-over-year.
The port methanol market continues to rise strongly, with a decrease in the arrival of foreign vessels, leading to a significant drop in port methanol inventory. The tight supply situation is gradually becoming more apparent, and coupled with the push from macroeconomic sentiment, coastal market prices are rising strongly. Methanol prices in China have also risen significantly, supported by strong macroeconomic sentiment. With tight spot circulation and the emergence of stocking demand for the dual festivals, prices have surged under the buy-high mentality.
As of the close on September 11, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract for methanol futures 2610 opened at 3,550 CNY/ton, with the highest price being 3,550 CNY/ton and the lowest price being 3,311 CNY/ton. It closed at 3,380 CNY/ton at the end of the session, a decrease of 95 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, a price decrease of 2.73%. The trading volume was 3,575,857, the open interest was 449,909, and the daily change in open interest was -87,703.
Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:
As of September 11, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:
| Region | Price |
|---|---|
| Shanxi Region | 3,530–3,530 CNY/ton, cash payment at factory |
| Anhui Region | 3,700–3,850 CNY/ton |
| Henan Region | 3,585–3,595 CNY/ton, cash payment at factory |
On the cost side, coal inventories have significantly declined, fueling a rise in coal prices. Traders are reluctant to sell, providing support for methanol prices to remain at high levels. The cost factors for methanol are leaning toward positive influences.
Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Demand Side: On the downstream end, although downstream profits have declined somewhat, the decline is limited. Some downstream companies have already begun ramping up pre-holiday inventory preparations, and current rigid demand continues to provide stable support. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices; thus, the demand side for methanol remains favorably impacted.
Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Supply side, Yulin Kayue, Hubei Sanning, Inner Mongolia Rongxin, Shanxi Yaxin, and Qinghai Salt Lake are undergoing plant maintenance; Xinxiang Zhongxin, Zhongtian Hechuang, Tangshan Zhongrun, and Qinghai Salt Lake plants have resumed operations. The overall recovery volume is greater than the loss volume, hence the capacity utilization rate has increased, leading to higher production. The supply side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the international markets, as of the close on September 10, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 564.5–565.5 per ton; the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 126–128 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 425–427 per ton.
| Region | Country | Closing Price |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | CFR Southeast Asia | USD 564.5–565.5 per ton |
| Europe and the U.S. | U.S. Gulf | 126–128 cents/gallon |
| Europe | FOB Rotterdam | EUR 425–427 per ton |
Looking ahead, import volumes are expected to decline significantly, and port inventories will continue their downward trend. Demand on the olefins side remains robust, but weak traditional demand is weighing down the overall market. Overall, methanol analysts forecast that China’s spot methanol market is likely to trade in a narrow range at high levels.
